Collaborative Research: Continental-Scale Monitoring, Modeling and Forecasting of Phenological Responses to Climate Change

物候学一词描述了植物和动物的季节节律，以及对这些节律的研究。植物物候过程，包括春季树叶长出和秋季变色的时间，对天气变化(例如暖春和冷春)以及气候的长期变化(例如变暖趋势和降雨量的时间和数量的变化)都有很高的反应。一个由生态学家、地理学家和计算机科学家组成的跨学科团队将开发一个大陆范围的观测网络，以研究物候和气候之间的关系。具体地说，在互联网上发布实时图像的数码相机(网络摄像头)将被用来监测全美不同生态系统中春季的“绿色上升”和秋季的“棕色下降”。该项目解决了生态学中的几个重大挑战问题，特别是在理解和预测气候变化对植物和生态系统的影响方面。该项目将对未来气候变化可能如何影响物候学进行预测，并将量化未来物候学变化可能如何影响社会从自然和管理的生态系统中获得的一些服务，如农作物、森林产品和清洁水。此外，该项目产生的数据将用于改善大规模气候模型中的物候过程表示，这将有助于减少未来气候预测中的不确定性。该项目包括为本科生和研究生提供研究机会，以及为两名博士后研究助理提供跨学科培训。由NSF赞助的哈佛森林本科生研究体验计划的暑期实习生将直接参与这个项目，与哈佛森林LTER校园计划和美国国家物候学网络的合作将促进公民科学家的参与。通过强调物候学是气候变化生物影响的具体例子，这些外展工作将提高公众对21世纪人类面临的环境挑战的认识。

The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). An interdisciplinary team, comprised of ecologists, geographers, and computer scientists, will develop a continental-scale observational network to study relationships between phenology and climate. Specifically, digital cameras posting live imagery to the Internet (webcams) will be used to monitor spring "green up" and autumn "brown down" of vegetation in different ecosystems across the United States. This project addresses several grand challenge questions in ecology, particularly with respect to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on plants and ecosystems. This project will develop predictions of how phenology may be affected by future climate change, and will quantify how future changes in phenology may impact some of the services that society derives from natural and managed ecosystems, such as agricultural crops, forest products, and clean water. In addition, the data produced from this project will be used improve the representation of phenological processes in large-scale climate models, which will help to reduce uncertainties in future climate forecasts. This project includes research opportunities for undergraduate and graduate-level students, and interdisciplinary training for two postdoctoral research associates. Summer interns in the Harvard Forest Research Experience for Undergraduates program, sponsored by NSF, will be engaged directly in this project, and collaboration both with the Harvard Forest LTER Schoolyard program and the USA National Phenology Network, will foster involvement of citizen scientists. By highlighting phenology as a tangible example of the biological impacts of climate change, these outreach efforts will raise public awareness about the environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st Century.