Modeling the Effectiveness of Interventions in Stopping the Spead of Vector-Borne Diseases

该项目的目标是改进用于了解媒介传播疾病传播的数学模型，例如最近非洲的裂谷热流行病、南美洲（和佛罗里达）的登革热爆发以及西尼罗河病毒在美国的持续传播。 由于环境和天气对蚊子传播的流行病的重要性，现有的模型将被扩展到对环境变化做出反应。对于通过病毒传播的蚊媒疾病，受感染的母亲有可能将病毒传播到她的卵子，她的后代出生时就受到感染。 因此，垂直传播也将包括在建模中，并将确定一系列参数，以确定何时垂直传播是重要的。 这些模型进行了分析，验证现场数据，并进行了全面的不确定性量化分析。 基于疾病潜在传播机制的数学模型可以帮助公共卫生界了解和预测流行病的传播，并评估控制流行病的不同方法的潜在有效性。 目标是建立数学模型，以提高我们对影响病媒传播疾病传播的生物、环境和缓解机制之间的基本关系的理解。 这些模型可用于评估不同缓解措施的相对影响，以控制流行病的传播;节省时间，资源和生命。

The goal of the project is to improve the mathematical models used to understand the spread of vector-borne diseases such as the recent Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Africa, the dengue fever (DENV) outbreaks in South America (and Florida), and the continued spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in the United States. Because of the importance of the environment and weather on mosquito-borne epidemics, existing models will be extended to be reactive to environmental changes. For mosquito-borne diseases spread by viruses, there is the possibility that an infected mother can transmit the virus to her eggs and her offspring be born infected. Therefore, vertical transmission will also be included in the modeling and a range of parameters will be identified to determine when vertical transmission is important. These models are analyzed, validated on field data, and undergo a full uncertainty quantification analysis. Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of the disease can help the public health community understand and anticipate the spread of an epidemic and evaluate the potential effectiveness of different approaches for bringing an epidemic under control. The goal is to develop mathematical models to improve our understanding of the essential relationships between the biological, environmental, and mitigation mechanisms that influence the spread of vector-borne diseases. Such models can be used to assess the relative impact of different mitigation efforts to control the spread of an epidemic; saving time, resources, and lives.