Collaborative Research: Effects of Social Transfer Programs on Cognitive, Social, and Economic Outcomes

在过去十年中，旨在通过以医疗服务和入学率为条件的转移支付减少短期和长期贫困的有条件现金转移支付（CCT）计划已在包括美国在内的全球30多个国家实施。更多类似的项目正在规划或试点中。这些方案的主要目标是在各自国家的一些最贫困地区持续减少贫困。其基本前提是，贫穷世代相传的一个主要原因是贫穷家庭没有能力对其子女的人力资本进行投资。例如，供应方的干预措施增加了教育和保健服务的提供和质量，但往往不能有效解决这一问题，因为贫穷家庭面临的资源限制使他们无法承担与利用这些服务有关的私人费用。有条件现金援助解决这一问题的办法是，将资金转移到最贫穷的社区和家庭，并规定现金转移的条件，除其他外，是受益儿童上学和接受定期预防保健。当家庭未能履行这些义务时，他们就失去了资格。通过将资金转移到贫困家庭，该方案消除了短期贫困。通过将资金转移与人力资本投资挂钩，该方案旨在解决长期贫困问题。尽管有条件现金转移支付在发展中国家和发达国家都很受欢迎，而且对教育和健康成果产生了巨大的短期影响，但只有有限的证据表明其对人力资本和劳动力市场成果的中长期影响，他们的目标是打破贫困的代际传递。此外，人们还不清楚，如果儿童受益的年龄早于年龄大，是否从这些干预措施中获得的收益更大。调查这些问题至关重要，因为关于幼儿营养和健康干预措施的证据好坏参半，无法确定其益处是继续存在还是逐渐消失。此外，在许多实施CCT的国家，人们对低质量的教育和劳动力市场的不完善感到担忧，这使得人们不清楚这些计划的教育收益是否真的会改善学习和劳动力市场的结果。迄今为止，中期证据是基于对墨西哥有条件现金转移支付方案的研究，相对来说没有定论。该项目将确定有条件现金转移（CCT）计划启动10年后的效果。为了严格评估该计划，治疗和控制地区被随机分配，分别在2000年和2003年成为有资格获得计划的好处。每个实验组只提供3年的货币福利。这项研究将利用这一实验设计来阐明与上述知识差距有关的一些具体研究问题。首先，我们将研究是否有资格在辍学最常见的学年进行干预，导致学校教育，学习成绩，认知能力和劳动力市场结果的差异。第二，我们将确定是否有差异的认知能力和教育成就的儿童2岁以下时，他们的家庭有资格参加该计划相比，儿童的家庭有资格后，他们的生活的第二年。第三，我们将调查该计划是否可能影响重要的生殖健康指标。第四，我们将使用准实验方法来检验该计划对这些相同结果的绝对10年影响。为了严格回答这些问题，特别是为了限制小组研究中常见的选择偏差，研究设计特别注意通过广泛跟踪移民来减少小组减员。研究结果将对研究美国和发展中国家健康，教育和营养计划以及社会转移政策的长期影响的学者产生极大的兴趣。鉴于有条件现金转移支付类型的项目的广泛普及和缺乏中期结果的证据，这些发现也将对许多国家政府、世界银行和美洲开发银行等国际发展机构以及对儿童早期发展和改善健康和营养的长期影响感兴趣的组织和机构具有重大的政策意义。

Over the past decade, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs aimed at reducing short- and long-term poverty via transfers conditional on health service and school attendance have been implemented in more than 30 countries worldwide, including the US. Many more similar programs are being planned or piloted. The primary objective of these programs is to generate a sustained decrease in poverty in some of the most disadvantaged regions in their respective countries. Their basic premise is that a major cause of the intergenerational transmission of poverty is the inability of poor households to invest in the human capital of their children. Supply-side interventions, which increase the availability and quality of education and health-care services, for example, are often ineffective in resolving this problem, since the resource constraints facing poor households preclude them from incurring the private costs associated with utilizing these services. CCTs address this problem by targeting transfers to the poorest communities and households, and making the cash transfers conditional, among other things, on beneficiary children attending school and receiving regular preventive health-care. When households fail to fulfill those obligations, they lose their eligibility. By targeting the transfers to poor households, the program alleviates short-term poverty. By linking the transfers to investments in human capital, the program aims to address long-term poverty. Despite the widespread popularity of CCTs in both developing and developed countries, and the substantial short-term effects they have had on education and health outcomes, there is only limited evidence of their medium- to long-term effects on the human capital and labor market outcomes they target to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Moreover, it is not well understood whether gains from such interventions are higher if children benefit at earlier rather than later ages. It is crucial to investigate these questions since evidence on early childhood nutrition and health interventions is mixed as to whether their benefits continue or fade out. Moreover, concerns about low quality schooling and labor market imperfections in many countries where CCTs are implemented make it unclear whether educational gains from these programs actually result in improved learning and labor market outcomes. To date, medium-term evidence is based on research on the CCT program in Mexico and is relatively inconclusive. This project will determine the effects of the Nicaraguan Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program, 10 years after its start. To evaluate the program rigorously, treatment and control localities were randomly assigned to become eligible for program benefits in 2000 and 2003, respectively. The monetary benefits were provided in each of the experimental groups for only 3 years. The study will take advantage of this experimental design to shed light on a number of specific research questions related to the knowledge gaps described above. First, we will examine whether being eligible for the intervention during school years when drop out is most common resulted in differences in schooling, academic achievement, cognitive ability, and labor market outcomes. Second, we will determine if there are differences in cognitive ability and educational achievement between children that were under age 2 when their households were eligible for the program compared to children whose households were eligible only after their second year of life. Third, we will investigate whether the program might have affected important reproductive health indicators. Fourth, we will use quasi-experimental methods to examine the absolute 10-year effect of the program on these same outcomes. To answer these questions rigorously, and in particular to limit selection biases that are common in panel studies, the study design pays special attention to reducing panel attrition through extensive tracking of migrants. The findings will be of great interest to academics examining the longer term effects of heath, education and nutrition programs as well as social transfer policies in the US and developing countries. Given the widespread popularity of CCT type programs and lack of evidence on medium-term results, the findings also will be of significant policy interest to many national governments, to international development agencies such as the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), and to organizations and agencies interested in early child development and in the long-term effects of improved health and nutrition.