Firms, Networks and Shocks: An Empirical Perspective

该奖项用于研究经济冲击如何通过单个公司之间的网络连接在整个经济中传播。现代经济由错综复杂的生产单位组成。这种生产网络的结构是冲击如何在整个经济中传播的关键决定因素之一。了解生产网络的结构及其如何影响经济冲击的传播，可以为政府制定政策，以应对自然灾害、能源价格飙升等不利冲击以及关键供应商和客户破产等金融冲击。以前的研究已经研究了生产网络结构及其对冲击传播的影响，但仅使用投入产出表在部门一级进行了研究。第一个项目将实证地描述美国公司间生产网络的特征，绘制生产经济中各个供应商与客户之间的联系。研究人员开发了一个网络形成模型，以符合有关网络的关键事实。然后，该模型被用来模拟对单个公司的冲击如何通过供应链传播，并潜在地传播到整个经济。第二个项目将研究多工厂公司拥有的生产工厂之间的公司内部联系。了解企业向垂直相关企业扩张的原因可以为我们提供关于管理/创业人才如何在经济中扩散的洞察力，也可能为垂直收购/合并的政策提供参考。该项目揭示并旨在解释一个经验谜题：多工厂公司看似垂直相关的工厂之间的内部发货非常少。这表明，垂直一体化不一定是促进实体投入在生产单位之间的流动，而是促进无形投入，例如管理实践和研发产出/制造技术。提案中的第三个项目的动机是美国财政部2009年的汽车保修承诺计划，该计划为政府提供了支持，以应对通用汽车和克莱斯勒发布的保修。调查人员研究了发放保修的耐用品制造商(如汽车制造商)的财务健康状况与消费者对公司生存能力的预期之间的联系。在使用二手车拍卖的非常详细的数据确定了这种联系在美国汽车行业的存在和规模之后，通过一个经过经验校准的模型，研究了由于多重均衡/银行挤兑类型的动态变化，美国汽车制造业可能出现的根本不稳定。然后，该模型被用来评估政府政策(如保修支持计划)的有效性，以阻止这种动态。

This award funds research on how economic shocks move through an entire economy via network links between individual firms.A modern economy is comprised of intricately linked production units. The structure of this production network is one of the key determinants of how shocks are transmitted throughout the economy. Understanding the structure of the production network and how it affects the propagation of economic shocks can inform government policy regarding how to prepare for and recover from adverse shocks, such as natural disasters, energy price spikes, and financial shocks such as the bankruptcy of key suppliers and customers.The network structure of production and its effect on shock propagation has been studied in previous research, but only at the sectoral level using input-output tables. The first project will empirically characterize the inter-firm production network in the U.S., mapping the individual supplier-customer links in the production economy. The investigator develops a model of network formation to fit key facts about the network. That model is then used to simulate how shocks to individual firms propagate through the supply chain and, potentially, to the whole economy. The second project will study intra-firm linkages between production plants owned by multi-plant firms. Understanding why firms expand into vertically related businesses can provide us with insights regarding how managerial/entrepreneurial talent diffuses through the economy, and also potentially inform policy regarding vertical acquisitions/mergers. The project uncovers and aims to explain an empirical puzzle: there are very few internal shipments between seemingly vertically related plants of multi-plant firms. This suggests vertical integration is not necessarily about facilitating the flow of physical inputs between productive units, but rather intangible inputs, such as management practices and R&D output/manufacturing know-how. The third project in the proposal was motivated by U.S. Treasury's Auto Warranty Commitment program in 2009, which provided a government back-stop against warranties issued by GM and Chrysler. The investigator studies the linkage between the financial health of warranty-issuing durable goods manufacturers (such as auto manufacturers) and consumer expectations regarding the firm's viability. After establishing the existence and magnitude of this link in the U.S. auto industry using very detailed data on used car auctions, the potential for fundamental instabilities in the U.S. auto manufacturing sector due to multiple equilibria/bank-run type dynamics is studied through an empirically calibrated model. The model is then used to assess the effectiveness of government policies (such as warranty back-stop programs) to thwart such dynamics.