DRRC/Collaborative Research: Emergency Management in Rural America: Decision-Makers Use of Climate Science in Flood Planning and Management

这个农村社区抗灾能力（DRRC）合作研究项目的目标是研究在美国农村地区洪水规划和管理中使用季节性气候预测的障碍和机会，重点是1）使科学和技术信息可能被农村从业者使用的特征; 2）农村用户预报信息网络的结构和功能; 3）群体决策过程对如何以及是否在农村洪水管理中采用气候预报的决策的影响。该方法首先从四个农村地区的案例研究，试图使用季节性气候信息。 之后，将对参与农村地区洪水规划和应急管理的利害关系方进行国家一级的调查，以调查气候信息使用的经验和影响因素。最后，在两个美国农村地区的地方，区域和国家级利益相关者的人模拟，以调查网络功能，群体偏见和决策结构如何影响气候预测在农村洪水规划和管理中的使用将进行。 该项目的主要智力价值在于提高对弱网络和强网络行政组织中信任与协作发展的理解，并将关于紧密联系的城市应急网络中应急管理决策的文献扩展到分散的农村灾前规划和减灾。 这项工作还推动了捕捉和衡量与不确定信息特征有关的偏好的方法，并将基于个人的所述偏好与群体决策进行比较，诸如提前几个月预报厄尔尼诺状况等季节性气候信息可用于改进与洪水等天气有关的极端事件的规划和管理。不幸的是，即使季节性预报信息看起来很明确，将有关可能气候条件的知识付诸实践以在极端事件发生之前改进规划也会带来困难。洪水和其他应急管理人员通常在预算紧张的情况下工作，他们也必须迅速做出决定。 此外，管理人员可能会发现，很难向公众和决策者清楚地传达高度不确定的事件可能产生的各种结果。 农村地区的情况可能尤其如此，因为地理距离使通信复杂化，而且技术专门知识比集中的城市地区分散得更广。 该项目审查预报信息的提供方式和农村地区参与应急管理的人员相互作用的方式是否影响利用季节性气候信息改进规划和管理以减少洪水造成的社会损失的能力。

The objective of this Disaster Resilience for Rural Communities (DRRC) collaborative research project is to examine the obstacles to and opportunities for the use of seasonal climate forecasts in flood planning and management in U.S. rural areas, focusing on the 1) characteristics that make scientific and technical information likely to be used by rural practitioners; 2) structure and function of networks of rural users of forecast information and; 3) influence of group decision processes in decision making about how and whether to employ climate forecasts in rural flood management. The approach begins with four case studies of rural regions that have attempted to use seasonal climate information. After that, a national-level survey of stakeholders engaged in flood planning and emergency management in rural areas to investigate experiences with and factors affecting the use of climate information will be implemented. Finally, in-person simulations of local, regional, and state-level stakeholders in two US rural regions to investigate how network features, group biases, and decision structures influence climate forecast use in rural flood planning and management will be conducted. The chief intellectual merit of this project lies in enhancing understanding of the development of trust and collaboration in weak and strong network administrative organization and in extending the literature on emergency management decision-making in tightly-knit urban response networks to dispersed rural pre-disaster planning and mitigation. This work also advances approaches to capture and measure preferences related to characteristics of uncertain information and to compare individual-based stated preferences and group decision making.Seasonal climate information such as forecasts of El Niño conditions months ahead of time can be used to improve planning and management of weather-related extreme events such as floods. Unfortunately, even when seasonal forecast information appears clear, putting knowledge about likely climate conditions into practice to improve planning for extreme events before they happen poses difficulties. Flood and other emergency managers typically work in situations with tight budgets, and they also must make decisions quickly. In addition, managers may find it difficult to clearly communicate to the public and policymakers the range of possible outcomes from events that are highly uncertain. This may be particularly the case in rural areas, where geographic distances complicate communication and technical expertise disperses more widely than in concentrated urban areas. This project examines whether the way in which forecast information is presented and the way in which those involved in emergency management in rural areas interact with each other influence the ability to use seasonal climate information to improve planning and management to reduce societal losses from floods.