WSC-Category 2 Collaborative: Robust decision-making for South Florida water resources by ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling

南佛罗里达的水管理的特点是需要平衡多个目标。目标之一是维持较高的地下水位，以限制海水入侵，并采取控制洪水的措施，以减轻旱季缺水的情况。此外，南佛罗里达州目前的600万人口预计在未来20年内将增长到1000万，城市用水需求必须得到可靠的管理。在这个特别脆弱的地区，海平面上升和盐水入侵已经影响了饮用水供应，并威胁到像迈阿密海滩和大沼泽地这样的低洼、高价值的建筑和自然环境的完整性。需要长期的适应策略来确保可持续的水资源，以满足不断增长的人口、农业和具有多种功能的湿地的需求，包括支持佛罗里达州的渔业。利益相关者的利益冲突以及技术、经济和政治挑战阻碍了此类战略的发展。该项目将开展高度跨学科的研究，利用多个机构的专业知识，调查各种气候变化、经济、人口和海平面上升情景下可持续水资源管理和土地利用规划的水文、经济、生态和人类行为维度。该研究将采用基于稳健决策的水力经济优化方法来制定管理战略，确保建筑和自然系统的供水弹性，同时也考虑到用水的广泛部门价值。优化标准将纳入水资源管理、生态功能和生态系统服务经济价值的项目研究结果。将实施新的实验方法，以更好地了解情景信息类型和不确定性对个人和地方利益相关者群体的决策标准选择和模型预测评估的影响。这些实验旨在提高对认知和感知偏差在决策中的作用的理解，当利益相关者检查水文经济预测与情景预测相结合时。利益相关者评估和制度决策的比较行为分析将提供独特的见解，了解信息类型、信息内容和认知偏见如何结合起来影响风险感知，以及个人和集体福祉的感知风险如何影响情景选择。最后，在机构和利益相关者的参与下，该项目将共同制定适应性水管理计划的建议，以促进利益相关者的长期支持。受海平面上升、气候变化和多样化用水需求（包括人口增长）影响的低洼沿海地区，将受益于开发创新、务实的方法来优化水资源配置的社会生态效益。该研究将包括动态地将经济学纳入适应性土地利用和水管理战略的利益相关者评估的新方法。负责管理南佛罗里达水资源的地方、州和联邦机构将受益于对适应性方案的分析，该方案明确纳入了对潜在结果的不确定性估计。南佛罗里达存在多个社会，其管理公共水资源的选择受到气候、物理和/或法律约束的限制，需要这种类型的综合评估，以促进合作决策，同时为不确定的水文气候条件和社会经济未来做好准备。

Water management in south Florida is characterized by the need to balance multiple objectives. Among the objectives are the maintenance of high groundwater levels to limit seawater intrusion and flood control measures that are also used to mitigate dry-season water shortages. In addition, south Florida's current population of 6 million is projected to grow to 10 million over the next 20 years, and urban water demand must be reliably managed. In this exceptionally vulnerable region, sea level rise and salt water intrusion have already impacted drinking water supplies and threaten the integrity of low-lying and highly-valued built and natural environments as diverse as Miami Beach and the Everglades. Long-term adaptive strategies are needed to ensure sustainable water resources for expanding populations, agriculture, and wetlands that serve multiple functions, including support of Florida's fishing industry. Development of such strategies has been hampered by conflicting stakeholder interests and technical, economic, and political challenges. This project will conduct highly interdisciplinary research, utilizing the expertise of multiple institutions, to investigate the hydrologic, economic, ecologic, and human behavioral dimensions of sustainable water management and land use planning under various climate change, economic, population, and sea level rise scenarios. The research will employ hydro-economic optimization approaches based on robust decision making to develop management strategies that ensure the resilience of water supplies for the built and natural systems, while also accounting for the broad-sector value of water use. Optimization criteria will incorporate the results of project research linking water management, ecological function, and the economic value of ecosystem services. New experimental approaches will be implemented to better understand the impacts of scenario information type and uncertainty on both selection of decision criteria and evaluation of model predictions among individuals and groups of local stakeholders. These experiments are designed to improve understanding of the roles of cognitive and perceptual biases in decision-making when stakeholders examine hydro-economic projections coupled with scenario forecasts. Comparative behavioral analyses of stakeholder evaluations and institutional decision-making will provide unique insights into how information type, information content, and cognitive biases combine to influence risk perception, and how the perceived risks to individual and collective well-being influence scenario selection. Finally, with agency and stakeholder involvement, the project will collaboratively develop recommendations for adaptive water management plans that foster long-term support from the stakeholders. Low-lying coastal regions subject to sea level rise, climate change, and diverse water demands, including growing populations, will benefit from the development of innovative, pragmatic approaches to optimizing the social-ecological benefits of water resources allocation. The research will include novel approaches for dynamically incorporating economics into stakeholder evaluations of adaptive land use and water management strategies. Local, state, and federal agencies responsible for managing south Florida's water resources will benefit from analyses of adaptive schemes that explicitly incorporate uncertainty estimates of potential outcomes. The multiple societies that exist in south Florida, whose options for managing public water resources are limited by climatic, physical, and/or legal constraints, require this type of integrated assessment to promote cooperative decision-making while preparing for uncertain hydro-climatic conditions and socioeconomic futures.