WSC-Category 2, Collaborative: Climate and human dynamics as amplifiers of natural change: a framework for vulnerability assessment and mitigation planning

迫切需要确定自然-人类耦合系统中的哪些元素对土地利用和气候的变化最敏感，因为它们可能对这些因素的变化做出强烈的反应。识别这类热点的方法？对变化的敏感度将使我们能够针对补救和其他管理措施，在它们将发挥最大作用的地方。该项目将测试和探索一种名为人类放大的自然变化(HANC)的新假说的生态和管理意义，该假说指出，最容易受到人类、气候和其他外部变化影响的景观区域是那些经历最高自然变化率的地区。研究小组将开发一个脆弱性评估的理论框架，并将通过对明尼苏达州河流流域(MRB)的深入研究来检验HANC假说。明尼苏达州流域是中西部上部以农业为主的分水岭。MRB涵盖了极其广泛的自然和人类引起的变化率以及对土地利用做法的敏感性。特别令人感兴趣的是土地利用和河网过程之间复杂的非线性耦合，这已经导致泥沙和营养物质的水域严重受损。在不断变化的人类活动和气候条件下，MRB的水域和生态系统服务的未来状况将是什么？在众多潜在的土地和水资源管理选择中，哪些最有可能产生一个可持续、有弹性和蓬勃发展的经济-环境耦合系统？为了回答这些问题，本研究试图：(1)确定当前高产沙率集中在外部变化之前正在经历高自然变化率的地区的程度；(2)研究系统中的阈值和局部特征如何放大和加速变化，以及如何在综合预测模型框架中将这种非线性效应参数化；(3)调查地貌系统中人类放大的自然变化(HANC)对观测到的MRB生态变化的贡献程度；以及(4)开发将基于HANC的推理纳入决策分析框架的手段，包括一套确定敏感区域的方法，以及空间目标监测活动。广泛影响：先前与州监管机构建立的牢固关系将确保该项目的结果直接影响未来的土地和水资源政策和管理决策。研究小组将与国家机构密切合作，通过利益攸关方会议、广泛参加的区域会议和信息报告，直接向公众传播新知识。此外，他们将开发一个基于HANC的分析工具箱，用于评估容易发生快速变化的地区，从中西部农业景观开始。这项工作产生的新知识将用于向科学博物馆提供与人类世有关的展品，开发环境科学和工程方面的创新K-12课程，并通过教师培训传播国家科学基金会S地球科学和气候扫盲原则。该项目支持三个早期职业生涯绩效指标和研究生、本科生和综合博士后的培训。在水文学、地貌学、生态学、生物学、工程学和经济学的科学家的共同建议下，在跨学科环境中的学生。

1209448WilcockThere is a pressing need to identify which elements of the coupled natural-human system are most sensitive to changes in land use and climate in the sense that they are likely to respond strongly to changes in these factors. Means of identifying such ?hot spots? of sensitivity to change would allow us to target remediation and other management measures where they will do the most good. This project will test and explore the ecologic and management implications of a novel hypothesis termed human-amplified natural change (HANC), which states that the areas of the landscape that are most susceptible to human, climatic, and other external changes are those undergoing the highest natural rates of change.The research team will develop a theoretical framework for vulnerability assessment and will test the HANC hypothesis through intensive study of the Minnesota River Basin (MRB), a 44,000 km2 agriculturally-dominated watershed in the upper Midwest. The MRB encompasses an extremely broad spectrum of natural and human-induced rates of change and sensitivity to land-use practices. Of particular interest is the complex nonlinear coupling between land use and river network processes, which has already resulted in severely impaired waters for sediment and nutrients. What will be the future condition of the waters and ecosystem services in the MRB under changing human actions and climatic conditions? Of the many potential land and water management options, which are most likely to produce a sustainable, resilient, and thriving coupled economic-environmental system? To answer such questions, this study seeks to:(1) determine the extent to which current high rates of sediment production are concentrated in areas that were undergoing high rates of natural change before the external changes were imposed; (2) study how thresholds and localized features in the system amplify and accelerate change and how such nonlinear effects can be parameterized in an integrated predictive modeling framework; (3) investigate the extent to which the human-amplified natural changes (HANC) in the geomorphic system contribute to observed ecological changes in the MRB; and (4) develop means to include HANC-based reasoning in decision analysis frameworks, including a suite of methods to identify sensitive regions, along with spatially targeted monitoring activities.Broader Impacts: Strong relationships previously developed with State regulatory agencies will ensure that the results from this project directly influence future land and water policy and management decisions. The research team will disseminate new knowledge directly to the public in close collaboration with State agencies via stakeholder meetings, widely attended regional meetings and informational reports. Further, they will develop a HANC-based analytical toolbox for evaluating areas prone to rapid change in the landscape, beginning with Midwestern agricultural landscapes. New knowledge generated from this work will be used to inform Science Museum exhibits related to the Anthropocene, develop innovative K-12 curricula in environmental science and engineering, and disseminate NSF?s Earth Science and Climate Literacy Principles via teacher training. The project supports three early-career PIs and training of graduate, undergraduate, and ?synthesis-postdoctoral? students in an interdisciplinary environment, co-advised by scientists in hydrology, geomorphology, ecology, biology, engineering, and economics.