Idealized Models in Scientific Explanation: Some Lessons from Geomorphology (Scholars Award)

在从物理学到经济学的学科中，科学家经常使用科学模型来解释各种现象。然而，模型的使用令人困惑。模型包含各种各样的理想化、抽象和省略;这意味着它们不是对其目标的字面上的真实描述。该项目旨在开发和测试一种新的基于模型的科学解释;它将展示如何以及何时可以适当地使用这种理想化的模型来产生科学知识。该项目的重点是如何使用理想化的模型来解释地貌现象（研究地球表面的物理结构及其如何演变），通过对科学案例研究的详细审查。智力价值这个项目将大大提高我们对科学解释的本质和科学建模的本质的理解。它还将阐明一些新颖的论文，包括不同种类的解释地貌，不同的作用鲁棒性分析发挥在评估解释模型，和模型谱系的模型validation.Broader影响的问题的相关性这个项目的结果将被传播的形式一本书，这将是第一本书在一个新的子领域，地貌哲学。这本书将有助于在科学哲学家和地球科学研究人员之间建立新的桥梁。更广泛地说，这个项目将对公众对科学的看法很重要。气候学家提出的许多关于全球气候变化的主张、预测和解释都被怀疑论者驳回，理由是它们是从不完整的模型中得出的，这些模型做出了理想化的假设。该项目将突出这种模型在科学中的普遍性，并将说明这种模型如何能够产生真正的预测和解释。因此，它将具有广泛的意义。

Brief DescriptionIn disciplines ranging from physics to economics, scientists regularly use scientific models to explain various phenomena. However, that use of models is puzzling. Models involve all sorts of idealizations, abstractions, and omissions; meaning that they are not literally true descriptions of their targets. This project aims to develop and test a new model-based account of scientific explanation; it will show how and when such idealized models can nonetheless be properly used to produce scientific knowledge. The project focuses on how idealized models are used to explain phenomena in geomorphology (the study of physical structures on the surface of the earth and how they evolve) through a detailed examination of scientific case studies. Intellectual MeritThis project will significantly advance our understanding of the nature of scientific explanation and the nature of scientific modeling. It will also articulate a number of novel theses including the different kinds of explanations in geomorphology, the different roles robustness analyses play in evaluating explanatory models, and the relevance of model lineages to the problem of model validation.Broader ImpactsThe results of this project will be disseminated in the form of a book, which will be the first book in a new subfield, the philosophy of geomorphology. The book will facilitate the building of new bridges between philosophers of science and researchers in the Earth sciences. More broadly, this project will be important for the public's perception of science. Many of the claims, predictions, and explanations offered by climatologists regarding global climate change are dismissed by skeptics on the grounds that they are derived from incomplete models that make idealized assumptions. This project will highlight the pervasiveness of such models in science and it will give an account of how such models can nonetheless generate true predictions and explanations. As a result, it will be of wide significance.