RAPID: Assessing Vulnerabilities from Climate Change: Impacts of Water Provision, Power Relations and Perceptions of Risk on Ecohydrology in the Tampa Bay Region Socioecosystem

该奖项支持的研究将建立在美国国家科学基金会城市长期研究领域（ULTRA-Ex）奖0948986支持的活动基础上，该奖项调查了坦帕湾大都市区社会生态系统驱动的关键资源水的资源再分配中的社会组织和权力分配。在之前的工作中，研究人员已经确定了坦帕湾区域社会生态系统中湿地生态水文条件、水再分配、社会权力和生态变化感知之间的关系。通过这个奖项，他们将开发和研究关于气候变化如何改变这个复杂的社会生态网络的新情景。调查人员将集中精力研究三个核心问题：(1)社会组织和权力分配如何影响坦帕湾供水系统当前的规划、风险感知和对气候变化的适应？(2)坦帕湾区域社会生态系统中，主要利益相关者、决策者和居民如何看待与水质和水量相关的气候变化脆弱性？(3)自然系统如何应对影响水质和水量的区域性社会生态系统特定气候变化情景？他们将通过与主要利益相关者的访谈，收集和分析该地区水系统对气候变化的风险和适应能力的定量和定性数据，他们将在统计上缩小该地区目前可用的佛罗里达州气候情景。他们将在现有情景的基础上，制定三种不同影响的气候变化情景（低、中、高），借鉴访谈反馈，并通过对主要利益相关者和居民的第二样本进行调查来测试这些情景，以评估感知、可接受性和适应能力。他们还将测量和分析生态指标，以便在不同的气候变化情景下模拟水系统的生物物理行为。该项目将从民族志角度研究气候变化对水质和水量的影响，揭示影响适应能力的权力差异、价值观冲突和制度障碍，为社会生态和政治生态理论做出贡献。研究结果将具有基本的研究价值，并将通过在公共会议上的介绍、易于获取的摘要报告以及通过与项目伙伴的正式互动，如主要的区域供水批发商坦帕湾供水公司和供水管理当局佛罗里达西南水管理区，广泛传播。与在其他ULTRA-Ex地点开展类似项目的研究小组进行交流，将有助于制定更有效的措施和城市易受气候变化影响的指标。本项目由环境保护署拨给国家科学基金会的资金支持。

Thr research supported by this award will build on activities supported by NSF Urban Long-Term Research Area (ULTRA-Ex) Award 0948986, which investigates how social organization and distribution of power in a socioecosystem-driven resource redistribution of a key resource, water, in the Tampa Bay metropolitan region. In previous work, the investigators have identified relationships among wetland ecohydrological conditions, water redistribution, social power, and perceptions of ecological change in the Tampa Bay regional socioecosystem. Through this award, they will develop and examine new scenarios regarding how this complex socioecological network might be modified by climate change. The investigators will focus their efforts on three core questions: (1) How have social organizations and distribution of power shaped current planning, perceptions of risk, and adaptation to climate change in the water provision system in Tampa Bay? (2) How do key stakeholders, decision makers, and residents perceive climate change vulnerabilities related to water quality and quantity in the Tampa Bay regional socioecosystem? (3) How will natural systems respond to regional socioecosystem-specific climate change scenarios that will impact water quality and quantity? They will collect and analyze quantitative and qualitative data on perceptions of risk and adaptive capacity of the region's water system to climate change through interviews with key stakeholders, and they will statistically downscale currently available Florida climate scenarios for the region. They will develop three climate change scenarios of varying impact (low, moderate, and high), building on existing scenarios, drawing on interview responses, and testing these scenarios by using surveys with a second sample of key stakeholders and residents to assess perceptions, acceptability, and adaptive capacities. They also will measure and analyze ecological indicators in order to model the biophysical behavior of the water systems under the varying climate change scenarios.The project will develop ethnographically informed scenarios of climate change impacts on water quality and quantity that will reveal power differentials, conflicting values, and institutional barriers that shape adaptive capacity, contributing to socioecological and political ecology theory. Research results will have fundamental research value and will be disseminated broadly through presentations at public meetings, easily accessible summary reports, and through formal interactions with project partners, such as Tampa Bay Water, the primary regional water-supply wholesaler, and the Southwest Florida Water Management District, the water-supply regulatory authority. Communication with research teams conducting similar projects at other ULTRA-Ex sites will facilitate development of more impactful measures and indicators of urban vulnerability to climate change. This project is supported with funds transferred to the National Science Foundation by the Environmental Protection Agency.