A Study of Elevated Convection with Excessive Precipitation

高空对流，雷暴从地球表面以上的不稳定中吸取能量，就其产生强降水的能力而言是有影响的，但往往预测不佳。 这种事件在密西西比河流域中部的温暖季节特别常见，靠近主要研究者的家乡。 这项工作的主要目标是通过分析特别的系列无线电探空仪观测和其他手段，在高空对流发生之前、期间和之后直接观测高层大气。 雷达观测将被用来描述风暴的生命周期，而各种观测（包括常规和专门收集的）将被分析，并最终通过使用WRF（天气研究和预报）社区模型的模拟来同化，以进一步探索和描述负责创造有利于高空对流爆发的环境的过程。 对由此产生的成功和不成功的预报（包括命中、未命中和零事件）进行比较检查，将有助于更清楚地确定预报误差的来源和所需的改进，重点是强降雨和降雪事件。 更广泛的影响将包括对各种高影响降水事件进行独特详细的观测，并与预报界直接接触。 本科生和研究生都将参与广泛的数据收集和分析活动，结果将被整合到一系列大学课程中。

Elevated convection, in which thunderstorms draw on their energy from instability focused well above the earth's surface, is impactful in terms of its capacity to produce heavy precipitation yet often poorly forecast. Such events are particularly common during the warm season over the mid-Mississippi basin, in close proximity to the principal investigator's home institution. The primary objective of this effort is direct observation of the upper atmosphere prior to, during and after episodes of elevated convection through analysis of special serial radiosonde observations and other means. Radar observations will be exploited to describe storm life cycles, while a variety of observations (both routine and specially collected) will be analyzed and ultimately assimilated by simulations using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) community model to further explore and describe processes responsible for creating environments conducive to outbreaks of elevated convection. Comparative examination of resulting successful and unsuccessful forecasts (including hit, miss, and null events) will serve to more clearly identify sources of forecast error and required improvements, with an emphasis on heavy rainfall and snowfall events. Broader impacts will include uniquely detailed observations of a variety of high-impact precipitation events and direct interface with the forecasting community. Both undergraduate and graduate students will be involved in a wide array of data collection and analysis activities, and result will be integrated across an array of university courses.