Understanding Annual to Decadal Variations in the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool

冷池是横跨中大陆架和外大陆架的底部冷水带，在整个春季和夏季延伸大西洋中部湾（MAB）的长度。冷池是冬天剩下的水，周围的水比现在温暖了10摄氏度。控制冷池季节演变和年际变化的过程具有重要的生态系统影响。考虑到全球气候变化对MAB生态系统的影响，尤其是对渔业的影响，对冷池的研究是及时的。冷池冬季残存的水在春季被季节性温跃层覆盖。冷池在春季和夏季逐渐变暖，随后在秋季被风暴和表面冷却破坏。初步分析表明，冷池逐渐变暖存在空间差异，温度、大小和持续时间在年际和年代际尺度上存在差异。然而，目前尚不清楚是什么过程导致了季节变暖和年际变率。历史物理资料（19世纪60年代至今）和一套广泛的系泊观测资料将被用来发展第一个全面的冷池气候学。这一气候学，连同33年的数值模式预测和历史养分数据，将成为解决有关驱动变暖的过程、变率特征以及冷池中物理变化与养分浓度之间联系等问题的工具。学术价值：该项目将首次全面描述冷池的季节演变，包括导致夏季逐渐变暖的过程。这也将增加我们对垂直混合和大陆架斜坡交换如何改变大陆架上的水性质的理解。该项目还将首次提供冷池温度、空间结构和持续时间的年际至年代际变化特征，以及导致这些变化的过程。更广泛的影响：越来越多的证据表明，气候变化影响MAB生态系统，包括具有重要商业价值的鱼类和底栖无脊椎动物的种群和空间分布。冷池在MAB生态系统的结构中起着关键作用。因此，清楚地了解冷池如何响应气候变化是理解对MAB生态系统的更广泛影响的重要因素。该项目产生的物理分析和数据将有助于渔业研究和管理。结果将与国家海洋渔业局的科学家分享，目的是将鱼类种群和分布的年际变化与冷池的变化联系起来。这项研究产生的数据集也将与广泛的科学界共享。

The Cold Pool is a band of cold bottom water over the middle and outer shelf that extends the length of the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) throughout the spring and summer. The Cold Pool is remnant winter water surrounded by water that is up to 10 C warmer. The processes that govern both the seasonal evolution and inter-annual variations in the Cold Pool have significant ecosystem-wide implications. A study of the Cold Pool is timely given growing concerns about the impact of global climate change on the MAB ecosystem, especially fisheries. The remnant winter water of the Cold Pool is capped in spring by the developing seasonal thermocline. The Cold Pool warms gradually over the spring and summer and is later destroyed in the fall by storms and surface cooling. Preliminary analyses indicate that the gradual warming of the Cold Pool varies spatially and temperature, size, and duration vary on inter-annual and decadal time scales. However, it is unclear what processes contribute to the seasonal warming and inter-annual variability. Historical physical data (1860s - present) and an extensive set of moored observations will be utilized to develop the first comprehensive climatology of the Cold Pool. This climatology, along with a 33 year numerical model hindcast and historical nutrient data will serve as tools to address questions regarding the processes driving warming, the characteristics of the variability, and the connections between physical variations and nutrient concentrations in the Cold Pool.Intellectual Merit: This project will provide the first comprehensive description of the seasonal evolution of the Cold Pool, including the processes contributing to the gradual summer warming. This will also add to our understanding of how vertical mixing and shelf-slope exchange modify water properties over the continental shelf. This project will also provide the first characterization of inter-annual to decadal variations in the temperature, spatial structure, and duration of the Cold Pool and the processes that contribute to those variations.Broader Impacts: There is growing evidence that climate changes impact the MAB ecosystem, including the stocks and spatial distribution of commercially important fish and benthic invertebrates. The Cold Pool plays a critical role in the structure of the MAB ecosystem. Therefore a clear understanding of how the Cold Pool responds to climate change is an important element in understanding the broader impacts on the MAB ecosystem. The physical analysis and data generated by the project will contribute to fisheries research and management. Results will be shared with scientists at the National Marine Fisheries Service with the goal of linking inter-annual to decadal variations in fish stocks and distributions to changes in the Cold Pool. The datasets resulting from this study will also be shared with the broad scientific community.