Temperature, seasonality and recurrent insect outbreaks - Tortix moths as a new mathematical and empirical model system

动物种群的不稳定，表现为数量的突然暴发和崩溃，可能会对整个生态系统产生重大影响。该项目将建立在昆虫最新发现的基础上，研究温度和物种的生活史特征如何相互作用，以改变生命周期的时间和种群数量变化的幅度。这项工作将结合复杂的数学建模、对现有数据的时间序列分析和实验室实验，以深入了解温度如何影响卷蛾种群的动态。研究人员将检验这一假设，即更温暖的气温和更极端的季节性通过加速和同步昆虫的发展来有利于昆虫的爆发，从而使多个重叠的种群周期结合在一起形成一个不太稳定的周期。卷蛾是高价值果树、浆果类和坚果类作物中普遍存在的农业害虫。该项目的结果将提高农民和土地管理人员预测这些害虫的暴发并确定最容易控制它们的生活期的能力。该项目的更广泛影响还包括培养两名研究生和至少三名本科生，以及发展美国和加拿大之间的国际科学合作。研究结果将通过农业推广材料向公众传播。

Instability of populations of animals, manifested as sudden outbreaks and crashes in their numbers, can have major effects on whole ecological systems. This project will build on recent discoveries in insects to investigate how temperature and the life history traits of a species can interact to change the timing of life cycles and the amplitude of changes in population size. The effort will combine sophisticated mathematical modeling, time-series analysis of existing data, and lab experiments to obtain a deep understanding of how temperature impacts the dynamics of populations of a tortrix moth. The investigators will test the hypothesis that warmer temperatures and more extreme seasonality favor outbreaks of insects by accelerating and synchronizing their development, such that multiple, overlapping population cycles combine to form a single, less stable cycle. Tortrix moths are ubiquitous agricultural pests of high-value fruit, berry and nut crops. Findings from this project will enhance the ability of farmers and land managers to forecast outbreaks of these pests and to identify the life stages at which they can be most easily controlled. The broader impacts of this project also include the training of two graduate students and at least three undergraduates, and development of an international scientific collaboration between the U.S. and Canada. Findings will be disseminated to the public through agricultural extension materials.