Workshop - Past as Prologue: Holocene Climate as Context for Future Climate Change; Mount Hood, Oregon; October 14-16, 2014

全新世涵盖了人类文明的整个时间跨度，是气候相对稳定的时期。模型预测表明，21世纪世纪全球平均变暖将大大超过甚至最温暖的全新世条件（Marcott等人，2013年），产生了人类社会以前没有经历过的气候状态。古气候学界的一个主要目标是对气候变化发展一个长期的观点，并提供未来变暖的背景下超越仪器记录。鉴于全新世是与当今气候最接近的模拟，继续对地球系统在这一时间框架内的详细分析将为科学家、政策制定者和公众提供与未来全球气候变化相关的信息。本次研讨会将邀请约40名数据收集者和建模者参与，致力于重建过去11,500年的气候、冰、大气和海洋变化。讲习班的目标有三个方面：召集从事全新世研究的关键人员，讨论和确定这一时期过去、现在和未来的研究方向;在各小组之间建立合作和网络，以促进未来和正在进行的研究计划，这将正式成为一个新的过去全球变化全新世工作组;并提出了一个可扩展的数据模型合成和统计分析的全新世，以指导未来的研究。召集人将努力使年轻和代表性不足的科学家参加会议，如果没有该奖项的支持，他们将无法出席会议。

The Holocene, which covers the entire time span of human civilization, stands out as an interval of relative climate stability. Model projections indicate that 21st century global-average warming will substantially exceed even the warmest Holocene conditions (Marcott et al., 2013), producing a climate state not previously experienced by human societies. A major goal of the paleoclimate community has been to develop a longer-term perspective on climate change, and provide context for future warming beyond the instrumental record. Given that the Holocene is the closest analog for today's climate, continued, detailed analyses of the Earth System over this time frame will provide information relevant to future global climate change to scientists, policy makers, and the general public.This workshop will engage ~40 data collectors and modelers working on reconstructions of climate, ice, atmosphere, and ocean variability of the past 11,500 years. The objectives of the workshop are threefold: bring together key personnel working on the Holocene epoch to discuss and identify the past, present, and future directions of research on this interval; establish collaborations and networking among the various groups to facilitate future and ongoing research plans, which will be formalized as a new Past Global Changes (PAGES) Holocene working group; and propose a publishable data-model synthesis and statistical analysis for the Holocene to guide future research. The convenors will strive to bring young and underrepresented scientists to the meeting whose attendance would not be possible without support from this award.