CNH: Collaborative Research: Modeling the Dynamics of Harmful Algal Blooms, Human Communities, and Policy Choices Along the Florida Gulf Coast

项目摘要在全球范围内，海洋环境中的有害藻华(HAB)对人类健康和沿海生态系统构成越来越大的威胁。这项研究将考察政策的选择和有效性，以减轻佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸有害藻类短小卡氏杆菌(Karenia Brevis)大量繁殖对经济和公共健康的影响。项目组将开发一个模型框架，其中包括自然和人类人口动态的统计模型、环境暴露-反应模型、成本最小化模型以及连接这些子模型的政策模拟模型。将实施一项教育计划，以评估旨在将风险降至最低的教育和外展工具。研究将集中在以下几个方面：(1)模拟墨西哥湾东部赤潮的发生频率、传播、强度和持续时间之间的关系；(2)阐明佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸短期和长期人口分布的变化模式；(3)明确赤潮作为海洋危害(暴露)和人类呼吸道疾病(反应)之间的联系；(4)输入与呼吸道疾病相关的疾病的经济成本；(5)展示向公众传达风险和实施缓解政策的可行方法；(6)比较实施现有政策和预期政策组合的成本；以及(7)描述一系列耦合现象(时间滞后、阈值、反馈循环、意外等)。这构成了在哈布斯背景下自然和人类之间的动态互动。该项目预计将深入研究自然与人类之间的一种动态耦合形式，其中必须就试图控制自然或人类行为或两者兼而有之以减少危害的相对有效性做出政策选择。该研究项目将增强我们对自然和人类系统之间的动态相互作用如何影响的理解，并为社会选择减轻海洋有害藻华(HAB)对经济和公共健康影响的公共政策提供信息。由赤潮和佛罗里达海湾沿岸不断增长的沿海人口组成的自然-人类耦合系统似乎表现出许多动态耦合系统的经典特征，如反馈、阈值、惊喜和遗留效应。更好地理解这些特点可能会导致公共政策更有组织、更有见地、成本更低、更有效。所获得的知识将为研究其他自然-人类耦合系统的研究人员提供信息，从而为世界各地受自然灾害影响的沿海和水生地区开辟其他研究路线。

Project AbstractAround the world, harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the marine environment are an increasing threat to human health and coastal ecosystems. This research will examine the choices and effectiveness of policies for mitigating the economic and public health effects of blooms of the harmful alga, Karenia brevis, along Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast. The project team will develop a modeling framework comprising statistical models of the dynamics of nature and human demographics, environmental exposure-response models, cost-minimization models, and a policy-simulation model that connects these submodels. An Education Program will be implemented to evaluate education and outreach tools that have been designed to minimize exposure to risks. The research will focus on the following: (1) modeling the relationship between nutrient loadings and the frequency, spread, intensity, and duration of HABs in the eastern Gulf of Mexico; (2) clarifying the changing patterns of short- and long-term human population distributions along the Florida Gulf Coast; (3) specifying the connection between HABs as marine hazards (exposures) and human respiratory ailments (responses); (4) inputing the economic costs of illnesses associated with respiratory ailments; (5) demonstrating feasible ways of communicating risks to the public and implementing mitigation policies; (6) comparing the costs of implementing combinations of existing and prospective policies; and (7) characterizing the array of coupling phenomena (time lags, thresholds, feedback loops, surprises, etc.) that comprise the dynamic interactions between nature and humans in the HABs context. The project is expected to yield insights into a form of dynamic coupling between nature and humans that heretofore has not been studied in depth, one in which policy choices must be made about the relative usefulness of attempts to control either nature or human behavior, or both, in order to reduce harm.This research project will enhance our understanding of how the dynamic interactions between natural and human systems influence and inform society's choice of public policies for mitigating the economic and public health effects of marine harmful algal blooms (HABs). The coupled natural-human system of HABs and increasing coastal populations on the Florida Gulf Coast appear to exhibit many of the classic characteristics of dynamic coupled systems, such as feedbacks, thresholds, surprises, and legacy effects. A better understanding of these characteristics can potentially lead to public policies that are better organized, more informed, less costly, and more effective. The knowledge gained will inform researchers studying other coupled natural-human systems, thereby opening up other lines of research into coastal and aquatic regions affected by natural hazards around the world.