DMUU: DCDC III: Transformational Solutions for Urban Water Sustainability Transitions in the Colorado River Basin

这个合作研究小组将产生必要的分析框架和实证结果，以理论化城市供水系统不确定性下的环境决策。科罗拉多河流域城市环境不确定性的一个主要担忧是对水资源的预期影响。可能的影响，如气温上升、降水数量和时间的变化以及变异性的增加，可能会减少可再生地表水和地下水的供应，并降低水质，导致广泛但不均衡的风险。预计的环境变化的生物物理影响受到土地利用变化、人口动态、经济发展和水管理决策的制约并与之相互作用。管理向城市水可持续性的过渡需要创新的水治理方法，这些方法要具有预见性、适应性、公平性和证据支持。这个协作小组包括一个由社会、行为、经济和可持续发展科学家组成的跨学科团队，他们与利益相关者密切合作。通过现实世界的可持续发展研究和教育经验，将对本科生、研究生和博士后学者进行重点可持续发展关键能力的教育和培训。该合作小组将建立和加强科学家和决策者之间的网络，以提高科学知识对决策的相关性，并促进不同观点之间的社会学习。从使用启发的可持续发展科学和不确定性下的决策中，研究人员将解决首要问题：考虑到环境和社会的不确定性，依赖科罗拉多河流域的城市如何制定转型解决方案来实现水的可持续性过渡？该研究计划包括四个综合项目区：1)区域环境和土地利用变化作为影响决策的生物物理驱动因素；2)行为者、制度和治理是影响决策的社会经济驱动因素；3)仿真建模、可视化分析、知识集成与交流场景；4)有证据支持的可持续水治理转型战略。这种方法使调查人员能够评估城市水系统决策如何受到社会、体制和经济过程所制约并与之相互作用的环境和土地利用变化的影响；模型，模拟，可视化，并探索在复杂的社会-生态-技术系统的替代未来；并进行比较研究，以发展科学知识，明确考虑具体的背景因素和可推广的模式。该合作小组项目由美国国家科学基金会社会、行为和经济科学理事会通过其不确定决策制定（DMUU）资助机会支持。

This collaborative research group will generate the analytical framework and empirical results necessary to theorize environmental decision making under uncertainty for urban water systems. One main concern about environmental uncertainties for cities in the Colorado River Basin is the anticipated impact on water resources. Possible impacts, such as rising temperatures, changes in the amount and timing of precipitation, and increased variability, likely will reduce renewable surface and groundwater supplies and diminish water quality leading to widespread but uneven risks. The projected biophysical impacts of environmental change are conditioned by and interact with land-use changes, population dynamics, economic development, and water-management decisions. Managing transitions toward urban water sustainability will require innovative approaches to water governance that are anticipatory, adaptable, just, and evidence-supported. This collaborative group includes a transdisciplinary team of social, behavioral, economic, and sustainability scientists working in close collaboration with stakeholders. A diverse group of undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral scholars will be educated and trained with a focus on key competencies in sustainability through real-world sustainability research and education experiences. The collaborative group will build and strengthen networks of scientists and decision makers that improve the relevance of scientific knowledge for decisions and foster social learning among diverse perspectives.Drawing from use-inspired sustainability science and decision making under uncertainty, the investigators will address the overarching question: Given environmental and societal uncertainties, how can cities dependent on the Colorado River Basin develop transformational solutions to implement water sustainability transitions? This research program is comprised of four Integrated Project Areas: 1) Regional environmental and land-use changes as biophysical drivers that affect decision making; 2) Actors, institutions, and governance as socioeconomic drivers that affect decision making; 3) Simulation modeling, visual analytics, and scenarios for knowledge integration and exchange; and 4) Evidence-supported transition strategies toward sustainable water governance. This approach enables the investigators to evaluate how urban water system decisions are affected by environmental and land use changes conditioned by and interacting with social, institutional, and economic processes; model, simulate, visualize, and explore alternative futures in complex social-ecological-technical systems; and conduct comparative studies to develop scientific knowledge with explicit consideration of specific contextual factors and generalizable patterns. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) funding opportunity.