SES RUI: Assessing the Effect of Systems Thinking on Decision Making

人类目前面临的最大挑战--气候变化、贫困、流行病、金融崩溃--是人类在极其复杂的系统中行动而没有能力充分理解这些系统如何运作的结果。许多人认为，在这种情况下，如果人们能够进行系统思考，就会做出更好的决策。系统思维是一种概念化现实和决策的方式，强调增强对关系和相互依赖性的理解。这项研究确定了简单且可扩展的方法，可以增加系统思维并增强日常决策，不需要广泛的培训或认知资源。特别是，本研究探讨是否隐喻和概念模型，鼓励人们思考更广泛的系统可以改变人们思考问题的方式，并提高他们的能力，以确定有效的解决方案。例如，图表和地图，帮助人们认识自己，并可视化他们与生态，社会或经济系统的关系，帮助他们做出有利于周围社区的选择？一些比喻（将国家公园描述为公园系统的“支柱”，而不是“珍珠”）是否有助于人们看到该公园与更大的生态系统之间的关系？从实用的角度来看，本研究最重要的一点是，相对简单的隐喻和概念模型有可能改善大规模人群的日常决策。本研究项目通过8项研究，确定了促进系统思维的隐喻和概念模型，并验证了系统思维改善决策的论点。两个实验识别系统隐喻，并测试其心理效应，以及它们对风险评估和决策的影响。两个实验测试是否重视系统的问题是一个先决条件，系统思维，以导致更好的决策。四项实地研究将测试系统隐喻对保护行为（电力使用）和政治行动（参与由非营利性通信公司Resource Media策划的基于社交媒体的活动）的影响。这些研究很重要，因为现有的系统思维研究都没有基于心理过程，也没有充分评估系统思维对决策和行为的影响。这里提出的研究计划将使用心理学理论，实证测量和实验技术来解决这些知识的巨大差距。

The greatest challenges humans currently face - climate change, poverty, epidemics, financial meltdowns - are the result of humans acting within enormously complex systems without the ability to fully understanding how these systems work. Many have argued that people will make better decisions under these circumstances if they can engage in systems thinking. Systems thinking is a way of conceptualizing reality and making decisions that emphasizes enhanced understanding of relationships and interdependencies. This research identifies simple and scalable methods of increasing systems thinking and enhancing everyday decision making that do not require extensive training or cognitive resources. In particular, this research examines whether metaphors and conceptual models that encourage people to think about the broader system can shift the way people think about a problem, and improve their ability to identify effective solutions. For example, do diagrams and maps that help people to situate themselves and visualize their relationships to ecological, social or economic systems help them make choices that benefit the community around them? Do some metaphors (describing a national park as the "backbone" of the park system, as opposed to a "pearl") help people see the relationships between that park and the larger ecological system? The most important facet of this research from a practical point of view is the possibility that relatively simple metaphors and conceptual models have the potential to improve decision making among large groups of people every day.In eight studies, this research project identifies metaphors and conceptual models that promote systems thinking, and test the contention that systems thinking improves decision making. Two experiments identify systemic metaphors and test their psychological effects, as well as their effects on risk assessment and decision making. Two experiments test whether valuing the system in question is a prerequisite for systems thinking to result in better decision making. Four field studies will test the impact of systemic metaphors on conservation behavior (electricity use) and political action (involvement in social media-based campaigns orchestrated by the non-profit communications firm Resource Media). These studies are important because none of the existing work on systems thinking is grounded in psychological processes, nor has it fully evaluated the effects of systems thinking on decision making and behavior. The research program proposed here will use psychological theory, empirical measurement, and experimental techniques to address these large gaps in knowledge.