Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: A Workshop

一个特别的NRC委员会将举办一个研讨会，召集南极海冰专家，回顾当前南大洋气候-海洋-海冰相互作用的科学，回顾过去50年的情况，并强调过去3年卫星遥感观测的记录范围。这种年度面积范围的增加与现有的最佳气候模式预测不符。气候模式预测认为，由于温室气体增加、平流层臭氧消耗和全球海洋变暖，海冰应该在减少。它也与北极海冰的明显减少不一致。目前尚不清楚的是，为什么南极洲周围的海冰范围没有减少，为什么在大多数地点（而不是所有地点）海冰范围继续增加，观测到的增加是否在大气-海洋-海洋-陆地冰系统耦合的年际变率范围内，以及为什么气候模式无法重现当前的观测结果。该研讨会将有助于美国和国际机构未来的研究议程，包括美国国家科学基金会、美国国家航空航天局和海军研究办公室。它还将有助于媒体和公众对南极海冰的讨论，使我们更清楚地了解我们知道什么和不知道什么。最后，它将有助于在研究这一主题的科学家之间建立新的联系和合作，特别是在职业生涯早期的科学家之间。

An ad hoc NRC committee will conduct a workshop to bring together Antarctic sea ice experts to review the current science for climate-ocean-sea ice interactions in the Southern Ocean, with an outlook back 50 years and an emphasis on the record extent of satellite sensed observations over the last 3 years. This increase in the annual areal extent is at odds with best available climate model projections that suggest the sea ice should be declining in response to increasing greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a warming global ocean. It is also at variance with the marked Arctic sea ice decrease. It remains unclear as to exactly why sea ice extent is not decreasing around Antarctica, why it continues to increase in most but not all locations, whether or not the observed increase lies within the large inter-annual variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land ice system, and why climate models are unable to reproduce current observations.The workshop will help inform future research agenda at US and international agencies, including NSF, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Office of Naval Research. It will also contribute to the media and public discourse about Antarctic sea ice, providing more clarity about what we do and do not know. Finally, it will help forge new connections and collaborations among scientists working on the topic, in particular early career scientists.