Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates

汇率变动是澳大利亚经济环境的重要因素。受到世贸组织贸易规则约束的美欧保护主义利益集团，指责东亚经济体故意低估币值。虽然汇率变动在短期内不容易预测，但潜在实际汇率的长期变化是可以用结构模型进行经济分析的。更清晰地了解这些力量，将更好地指导该地区（包括澳大利亚）的投资，更重要的是，它将更好地为未来围绕货币走势的政策辩论提供信息。

Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.