RAPID: Evaluating the Top-Two Primary System

摘要使用前两名的初选制度是否会改变选民的政治知识、政治兴趣和投票选择。加州2016年的前两名初选提供了一个机会，让我们了解加州选民在初选或大选中的表现是否因为他们不同寻常的初选制度而有所不同。PI使用小组调查来评估选民是否更了解政治，是否从不同的来源获得信息，是否从战略上考虑他们的初选和普通选票，以及总体上是否可能因为选举改革而投票不同。小组调查在两个时间点将一组加州选民与一组全国选民进行匹配(紧接在6月初选之后，然后在11月大选之后)。这一策略允许PI检查加州选民的行为在多大程度上与全国各地的选民不同，但也将让我们知道他们在初选和大选之间的行为变化程度。我们特别感兴趣的是，初选法律是否使选民更了解对方的候选人。技术总结：有限的证据表明，排名前两位的初选改革改变了选民的选择和选举结果。该项目将加州登记选民的大规模调查与具有全国代表性的登记选民样本进行比较。之前的调查捕捉到了有争议的两大国会或加利福尼亚州立法竞选中选民行为的快照，但到目前为止，还不可能评估全州所有选民都在参加一场可能结果是两党共同参加大选的竞选的选民行为。具体地说，这个项目评估了前两名初选对选民行为和态度的影响，这些影响与政治知识和投票选择的温和有关。本研究探讨选举制度、政治知识与投票选择之间的理论关系。

General SummaryDoes the use of a top-two primary electoral system alter voters' political knowledge, interest in politics and vote choices. The 2016 top-two primary in California provides an opportunity to understand whether voters in California are behaving differently in the primary election or the general election because of their unusual primary election system. The PIs use a panel survey evaluate whether voters are more informed about politics, are getting their information from different sources, are thinking strategically about their primary and general ballots, and in general are likely to vote differently because of the electoral reform. The panel survey matches a set of California voters to a set of national voters at two points in time (immediately after the June primary and then again after the November general election). This strategy allows the PIs to examine to what extent California voters are behaving differently than voters across the nation but will also let us know to what extent their behavior changes between the primary and general election. We are particularly interested in whether the primary election laws cause voters to become more informed about opposite party candidates.Technical Summary There is limited evidence that the top-two primary electoral reform has altered voters' choices and electoral outcomes. This project compares a large scale survey California registered voters to a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Previous surveys have captured snapshots of voter behavior from contested top-two congressional or California legislative races, but until now it has not been possible to evaluate voter behavior where all statewide voters are participating in a contest where a likely outcome is a co-partisan general election contest. Specifically, this project evaluates the effect of the top-two primary on voter behavior and attitudes as related to political knowledge and moderation of vote choice. This project addresses the theoretical relationship between electoral system, political knowledge and vote choice.