DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Forecasting potential effects of climate on tick-borne disease dynamics in Central Panama

蜱虫可以将疾病传播给所有被其叮咬的动物，包括人类。这些“蜱传”疾病可能非常有害，导致疾病，死亡和经济损失。为了预防和减少蜱传疾病，重要的是要了解这些疾病的传播风险在地理区域和一年中的不同时间可能会有所不同。由于蜱生活在室外，它们的生存和繁殖能力可能会受到降雨和温度的影响。在蜱虫生存良好的气候中，它们携带和传播疾病的机会可能更高。这项研究将通过检查不同气候和一年中不同时间的蜱活动和存活率，帮助确定气候如何影响蜱传疾病的风险。这些研究地点彼此靠近，但气候却截然不同，这为研究气候对蜱虫和蜱传疾病的影响提供了难得的机会。该项目的结果可用于制定旨在预防或减少蜱传疾病传播的公共卫生计划。该研究将评估非生物和生物变量如何影响巴拿马中部蜱虫丰度和蜱传病原体流行率的空间和时间变化。为了充分表征气候对蜱传疾病风险的影响，研究人员将把蜱和野生动物宿主的实地采样与病原体分析和气候建模相结合。然后，他们将构建一个全面的模型来量化气候变量决定整个地区蜱传疾病频率的非生物和生物途径。该模型将为区域政策和公共卫生决策提供信息，并将为其他气候和蜱媒疾病研究提供广泛的框架。

Ticks can pass on diseases to all animals they bite, including humans. These "tick-borne" diseases can be very harmful, causing illnesses, deaths, and economic losses. To prevent and reduce tick-borne diseases, it is important to understand how risk of passing on these diseases may differ among geographic regions and times of year. Because ticks live outside, their ability to survive and reproduce is likely affected by rainfall and temperature. In climates where ticks survive well, there may be a higher chance of them carrying and passing on diseases. This research will help determine how climate affects the risk of tick-borne disease by examining tick activity and survival across different climates and times of year. The study sites are close to each other yet have very different climates, providing a rare opportunity to examine the effects of climate on ticks and tick-borne diseases. Results of this project can be used to develop public health programs aimed at preventing or reducing the spread of tick-borne disease.This research will evaluate how abiotic and biotic variables affect spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of ticks and prevalence of tick-borne pathogens across central Panama. To fully characterize the effects of climate on tick-borne disease risk, researchers will integrate field sampling of ticks and wildlife hosts with pathogen analysis and climate modeling. They will then construct a comprehensive model to quantify the abiotic and biotic pathways by which climate variables determine the frequency of tick-borne diseases across the region. The model will inform regional policy and public health decisions and will provide a broad framework upon which other climate and tick-borne disease studies may be built.