Transactive Uncertainty and Flexibility for High Penetration of Semi-dispatchable Renewables in Electricity Markets

太阳能和风力发电等可变能源（VER）的渗透率不断提高，对传统的电力系统运营和电力市场机制提出了挑战。由于其固有的不确定性和可变性，VER生成导致电网中的不确定性增加。必须通过现有的灵活性，如能源储存、需求管理和能够提供大幅度增加或减少发电量的发电机，来适应自愿减排所固有的不确定性。管理不确定性的现有方法通常被动地为这些灵活性来源提供启发式激励。然而，电力系统中可用的灵活性是有限的。随着VER渗透率的显著增加，系统运营商通常会减少更多的可再生能源，并且由于灵活性不足，系统安全性可能会受到危害。因此，它变得至关重要，以优化的不确定性来源所需的灵活性。本研究将以交易弹性与不确定性为新概念，探索电力市场中主动的不确定性管理机制。灵活性将被视为商品，可以在市场上买卖，以成本效益的方式彻底解决不足的问题。由于其规模和复杂性，这是非常具有挑战性的解决相关的优化问题，考虑到不确定性的VERs在现实世界中的系统。本计画将开发快速排程工具，以满足真实的电力市场对时效性的需求。此外，该项目的结果将有助于开发一个新的课程，将由首席研究员教授。该项目的目的是开发一个理论上合理而实用的市场清算模型和调度工具，用于半可调度可再生能源高度渗透的电网。主动的不确定性管理将使灵活性处于最佳、主动和成本有效的位置。将根据统一的不确定性边际价格，向不确定性缓解者和不确定性来源提供明确和公平的激励，边际价格随地点和时间而变化。本研究主要包括三个方面的内容：（1）建立一个具有交易不确定性和灵活性的电力市场模型，该模型满足成本因果原则;（2）利用电网的特殊结构，设计具有可验证计算性能的日前和实时电力市场的新的求解方法;（3）在实际电力系统中验证、演示和推广所提出的模型和计算方法。该项目的成功完成将可能解决电力系统不确定性管理的根本挑战。该项目的系统框架预计将增加社会福利，允许更深的VER渗透，提高电网的安全性和可靠性，并改善市场公平性。

The increasing penetration of variable energy resources (VER), such as solar and wind generation, is challenging traditional power system operations and electricity market mechanisms. Due to its intrinsic intermittency and variability, VER generation leads to increased uncertainty in the power grid. The uncertainty inherent in VERs must be accommodated by available flexibilities, such as energy storage, demand management, and generators that can offer large rates of increase or reduction of generation. Existing methods for managing uncertainty often passively offer heuristic incentives to these sources of flexibility. However, the available flexibility in the electric power system is limited. As VER penetration increases significantly, system operators often heuristically curtail more renewables, and system security can be jeopardized due to flexibility scarcity. Thus, it becomes crucial to optimize the flexibility demanded by the uncertain sources. The research project will explore an active uncertainty management mechanism in the electricity market with a novel concept, transactive flexibility and uncertainty. Flexibility will be treated like a commodity, which can be bought and sold in the market, to completely address the issue of deficiency in a cost-effective way. Due to its scale and complexity, it is very challenging to solve the associated optimization problem considering the uncertainties from VERs in real-world systems. This project will develop fast scheduling tools to meet the timeliness requirement in real electricity markets. Also, the project results will contribute to development of a new course to be taught by the Principal Investigator.The aim of this project is to develop a theoretically sound yet practical market clearing model and scheduling tool for power grids with high penetration of semi-dispatchable renewables. Active uncertainty management will position the flexibility optimally, proactively and cost efficiently. Clear and fair incentives will be provided to both uncertainty mitigators and uncertainty sources based on a unified uncertainty marginal price, which varies with location and time. The research project has three cohesive parts: (1) developing a new electricity market model with transactive uncertainty and flexibility satisfying a cost-causation principle; (2) designing novel solution approaches for day-ahead and real-time electricity markets with provable computational performance through exploiting the special structure of the power grid; (3) validating, demonstrating, and promoting the proposed models and computational methods in real-world power systems. The successful completion of this project will potentially address the fundamental challenge of uncertainty management in electric power systems. The systematic framework of the project is expected to increase social welfare, allow for deeper VER penetration, enhance the security and reliability of the power grid, and improve market fairness.