CAREER: Causal Connections Between the Arctic and Mid-latitudes

近年来，北极加速变暖，海冰史无前例地消失，这引发了一系列研究，并引发了公众对高纬度地区的这些变化可能如何影响低纬度地区天气的兴趣。对于我们是否已经目睹了重大影响，存在很大分歧。这些争论的焦点是“谁在引起谁”的问题，因为高纬度地区的变化与包括中纬度地区在内的其他纬度地区的变化发生在同一时代。如何从数据(观测和模型输出)中推断因果关系是气候科学界迫切需要解决的最突出问题之一。在这里，PI计划将因果发现技术应用于北极和中纬度环流之间的因果联系问题，这是一种独特的统计和数据分析类型。这些工具将提供对连接北极温度和中纬度天气的因果路径的洞察，量化最先进的气候模型模拟这些路径的能力，并评估这些路径在未来几十年可能发生的变化。这项得到资助的研究将增进我们对北极和中纬度天气之间双向联系的了解，这反过来又可以改善短期天气预报，以及改善对未来几十年天气/气候变异性的预测。此外，该项目还将包括为大气科学家开发一个数据分析技术无障碍解释的在线“门户”，并附以大气科学为动机的例子：大气科学家数据分析工具门户。最近气候数据的爆炸性增长和地球系统模型的日益复杂，比以往任何时候都要求大气科学家比以往任何时候都更需要具备必要的技能来做出新的和强有力的发现。社区计划共同努力，创建、测试和传播数据门户材料。这些社区协调的研究/教育活动包括同行贡献和审查、研究生讲习班、统计和门户开发者顾问，以及纳入七所大学现有和计划的课程。数据门户不仅将成为全球科学家的资源，还将允许分享想法和工具，推动科学突破，并支持五名本科生研究人员。将制定一项可持续发展计划，将数据门户转变为社区驱动的努力，以确保其寿命超过这一职业补助金的5年期限。作为一个整体，该项目将通过支持六名女性教员(PI和五名合作者)的努力，额外支持一名研究生和在STEM中代表性不足的个人。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The accelerated warming of the Arctic and unprecedented loss of sea ice in recent years have spurred a flurry of research and public interest on how these changes at high latitudes may impact weather at lower latitudes. There is much disagreement on whether we have already witnessed substantial impacts. The focal point of these debates is the question "who-is-causing-who", as changes in high latitudes take place at the same era as those in other latitudes, including mid-latitudes. The question how to infer the causality from data (observations and model outputs) is one of the most outstanding issues that the climate science community needs to resolve urgently. Here, the PI plans to apply causal discovery techniques, a unique type of statistical and data analysis, to the question of causal connections between the Arctic and mid-latitude circulation. These tools will provide insight into the causal pathways connecting Arctic temperatures to mid-latitude weather, quantify the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate these pathways, and assess how these pathways may change in the coming decades. The funded research will advance our understanding of the two-way links between the Arctic and mid-latitude weather, which in turn, can lead to improvements in short-term weather forecasts as well as improvements in predictions of weather/climate variability in the coming decades. In addition, this project will include the development of an online "gateway" of accessible explanations of data analysis techniques with accompanying atmospheric-science-motivated examples for atmospheric scientists: the Data Analysis Tools for Atmospheric Scientists (DATAS) Gateway. The recent explosion of climate data and increasing complexity of earth-system models requires that now, more than ever, atmospheric scientists be equipped with the necessary skills to make novel and robust discoveries. A joint community effort is planned for creating, testing, and disseminating the DATAS Gateway material. These community coordinated research/education activities include peer contributions and review, graduate student workshops, statistical and gateway-developer consultants, and integration into current and planned curricula across seven universities. The DATAS Gateway will not only be a resource for scientists across the globe, but will also allow for the sharing of ideas and tools, spur scientific breakthroughs and support five undergraduate researchers. A sustainability plan will be developed to transition the DATAS Gateway to a community-driven effort to ensure that it outlives the 5-year horizon of this CAREER grant. The project as a whole will additionally support a graduate student and individuals under-represented in STEM by supporting the efforts of six female faculty (the PI and five collaborators).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.