RAPID: Public Perceptions of Success and Failure in the Governmental Response to Natural Disasters

这个项目考察了公民对政府对哈维飓风的反应的看法的性质、来源和后果。从几个时间点的在线调查中收集的民意数据将与同一时间段内的政府活动和媒体报道相匹配。我们将考察后两个因素，以及个人的政治倾向、社会人口特征和灾害情况的既往经验，在多大程度上影响公众对政府应对行动有效性的信念。我们还将确定公民对灾难应对的感受是否会影响他们对政府和政治制度的更广泛取向。这项研究的发现应该有助于灾难培训计划，并帮助应急管理机构建立更强大的响应系统。公众对政府努力的反应可能会对公民对在任公职人员的评价产生深远影响。同时，感知到的回应有效性可能是决定人们对政府绩效的更普遍感受的一个主要因素。这反过来又影响到在随后的政策制定中给予公职人员的“回旋余地”。对政府灾害政策的群众性响应的分布也影响到公众本身。对政府效力的看法有助于提高遵守未来指令的意愿。易受灾害影响的感觉与社会连通感或社会资本有关。而且，与灾难应对相关的问题往往会根据种族和民族划分开来。这项拟议的研究将为处理这类社会问题提供有用的见解。这项研究将依赖于从三个来源收集的数据。首先，公众对灾难响应的看法和评估，以及其他相关的信念和态度，将从NORC的ameriSak计划进行的具有全国代表性的在线调查中获得。这将是一项小组研究，在几个时间点上对受访者进行抽样调查。第二，联邦应急管理局和其他机构开展的具体政府行动的信息将从每日政府报告中编码。第三，有关政府对哈维的回应的媒体报道的范围、内容和语气的信息将通过在同一时间段内监测主要媒体获得。使用多个时间点将显示公众舆论的分布如何与政府行动和媒体对灾害应对的报道的可变性相对应。大多数调查问题将在小组的不同阶段至少重复两次，从而使交叉滞后模型能够评估关于政府应对过程的个人意见的决定因素和后果中的因果关系。

This project examines the nature, sources and consequences of citizens' perceptions regarding the governmental response to Hurricane Harvey. Public opinion data, collected from an online survey at several points in time will be matched to government activity and media coverage during the same time periods. We will examine the degree to which the latter two factors, along with personal political predispositions, sociodemographic characteristics, and prior experience with disaster situations, influence mass beliefs about the effectiveness of governmental response operations. We will also determine whether citizens' feelings about the disaster response affect their broader orientations toward government and the political system. The findings from this study should benefit disaster training programs and help emergency management agencies develop stronger response systems. The public response to governmental efforts can have profound consequences for citizen evaluations of incumbent public officials. At the same time, the perceived effectiveness of the response can be a major factor in determining more general feelings about governmental performance. That, in turn, affects the ``leeway'' that is accorded to public officials in subsequent policy making. The distribution of mass responses to governmental disaster policies also affects the public itself. Perceptions of governmental effectiveness feed into the willingness to comply with future directives. Feelings of vulnerability to disasters are related to a sense of social connectedness or social capital. And, the issues associated with disaster response often divide along racial and ethnic lines. The proposed study will provide useful insights for dealing with these kinds of societal problems.The study will rely on data collected from three sources. First, public opinion on perceptions and evaluations of the disaster response, along with other relevant beliefs and attitudes, will be obtained from a nationally representative online survey conducted by NORC's AmeriSpeak program. This will be a panel study in which a sample of respondents is interviewed at several points in time. Second, information about specific governmental actions carried out by FEMA and other agencies will be coded from daily government reports. Third, information about the extent, content, and tone of media coverage accorded to the government response to Harvey will be obtained by monitoring major outlets over the same time period. The use of multiple time points will show how the distribution of public opinion corresponds to variability in both government actions and media coverage of the disaster response. Most of the survey questions will be repeated at least twice on different waves of the panel, thereby enabling cross-lagged models to evaluate causal relationships in the determinants and consequences of individual opinions about the governmental response process.