GeoHazard: Modeling Natural Hazards and Assessing Risks

随着人类人口的增长和向极端自然事件影响生命的地区扩散，人们越来越需要创新的地球科学课程材料，帮助学生解释数据和了解与自然灾害相关的因素和风险。研究这些自然事件背后的过程以及人类与其环境之间的关系，将为学生提供关于极端自然事件潜在影响的宝贵见解，从而丰富标准的地球科学课程。该项目将通过开发和测试一种新的教学方法来满足这一需要，该方法将数据分析工具与地球系统模型整合在一套供初中和高中地球科学学生使用的在线课程模块中。每个单元将被设计为一系列活动，持续时间约为7-10节课。这些将是独立的模块，因此每位教师只能实施一个模块或几个模块。这些单元将有助于形成与自然灾害及其影响的系统科学有关的丰富的概念理解。学生将发展科学论证，包括基于他们对真实世界数据和正在研究的特定地球系统的理解进行风险评估。该项目将开发一套专门为探索造成自然灾害的地球科学系统而设计的计算模型。还将为学生修改一个开源数据分析工具，以创建和分析现实世界危险的规模、频率和分布以及这些危险对人的影响的可视化。学生将把地球系统模型产生的数据与真实世界的数据进行比较，以加深对自然灾害的原因和发展的理解，并做出预测和评估未来的风险。探索研究PREK-12计划(DRK-12)旨在通过研究和开发创新资源、模型和工具，显著提高Pre-K-12学生和教师在科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)方面的学习和教学。DRK-12计划中的项目建立在STEM教育的基础研究和先前的研究和开发努力的基础上，这些研究和开发工作为拟议的项目提供了理论和经验证明。这项为期四年的早期设计和开发项目将分两个阶段进行。在第一阶段，基于设计的研究将用于反复设计和测试地球系统模型。一个由五名带队教师组成的小组将在课程开发阶段实地测试模块并提供重点小组反馈。这些带头教师将为工具的设计和开发、课程的组织和结构提供意见，并就课堂实施提供建议，以支持教师支持材料的开发。开发模型后，将开发、测试和修订与飓风、地震、洪水和野火相关的四个课程模块。在第二阶段，由30名教师组成的小组将参与实施研究，以测试不同背景的学生对模块的可用性以及在各种课堂环境中实施的可行性。研究将侧重于了解如何支持学生对真实世界数据集的分析，以提高他们对与自然灾害有关的复杂地球系统的概念性理解。该项目还将考察不确定性在学生进行科学论证时的作用，这些论证包括对复杂系统行为的预测以及与风险评估相关的不确定性。该项目旨在澄清学生对不确定性的看法，以及教师如何更好地支持学生理解系统、模型和自然灾害的内在不确定性性质，同时理解模型可以用来减少影响。指导项目研究的问题包括：(1)学生如何使用灵活的数据可视化来理解数据，并建立和改进关于自然灾害的概念模型？(2)学生如何将模型和现实世界的数据结合起来，以形成科学论证；学生如何根据他们对自然灾害系统的理解，使用科学不确定性来评估风险；以及学生如何量化和解释人类面临的风险，并比较不同的风险来源？以及(3)地质灾害课程模块是否帮助学生在充满风险的科学论证实践和对潜在自然灾害的概念性理解方面有所收获？在多大程度上、对谁、在什么条件下，地质灾害课程在发展充满风险的科学论证实践和概念理解方面是有用的？这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

As human populations grow and spread into areas where extreme natural events impact lives, there is increasing need for innovative Earth science curriculum materials that help students interpret data and and understand the factors and risks associated with natural hazards. Studying the processes underlying these naturally occurring events and the relationships between humans and their environments would enrich the standard Earth science curriculum by providing students with valuable insights about the potential impacts of extreme natural events. This project will respond to that need by developing and testing a new instructional approach that integrates a data analysis tool with Earth systems models in a suite of online curriculum modules for middle and high school Earth science students. Each module will be designed as a sequence of activities lasting approximately 7-10 class periods. These will be stand-alone modules so each teacher can implement just one module or several modules. The modules will facilitate development of rich conceptual understandings related to the system science of natural hazards and their impacts. Students will develop scientific arguments that include risk assessment based on their understanding of real-world data and the particular Earth system being studied. The project will develop a set of computational models designed specifically to explore geoscience systems responsible for natural hazards. An open-source data analysis tool will also be modified for students to create and analyze visualizations of the magnitude, frequency, and distribution of real-world hazards and the impact of those hazards on people. Students will compare data generated from the Earth systems models with real-world data in order to develop an understanding of the cause and progression of natural hazards, as well as to make predictions and evaluate future risks. The Discovery Research preK-12 program (DRK-12) seeks to significantly enhance the learning and teaching of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) by preK-12 students and teachers, through research and development of innovative resources, models and tools. Projects in the DRK-12 program build on fundamental research in STEM education and prior research and development efforts that provide theoretical and empirical justification for proposed projects. The four-year, early stage design and development project will be conducted in two phases. In Phase 1, design-based research will be used to iteratively design and test Earth systems models. A team of five lead teachers will field test modules and provide focus group feedback during the development phase of the curricula. These lead teachers will provide input into the design and development of the tools, the organization and structure of the curriculum, and provide suggestions about classroom implementation to support the development of teacher support materials. After the models are developed, four curriculum modules related to hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and wildfires will be developed, tested, and revised. In Phase 2, a group of 30 teachers will participate in implementation studies that will test usability of the modules across students from diverse backgrounds and feasibility of implementation across a range of classroom settings. Research will focus on understanding how to support student analysis of real-world datasets in order to improve their conceptual understanding of complex Earth systems associated with natural hazards. The project will also examine the role of uncertainty when students make scientific arguments that include predictions about the behaviors of complex systems and the uncertainties related to risk assessment. The project aims to clarify student views of uncertainty and how teachers can better support student understanding of the inherently uncertain nature of systems, models, and natural hazards, while understanding that models can be used to reduce impact. Questions guiding project research include: (1) How do students use flexible data visualizations to make sense of data and build and refine conceptual models about natural hazards? (2) How do students incorporate data from models and the real world in formulating scientific arguments; how do students use scientific uncertainty to assess risks based on their understanding of a natural hazard system; and how do students quantify and explain risks to humans and compare different sources of risks? And (3) Do GeoHazard curriculum modules help students make gains in risk-infused scientific argumentation practice and conceptual understanding underlying natural hazards? To what extent, for whom, and under what conditions is the GeoHazard curriculum useful in developing risk-infused scientific argumentation practice and conceptual understanding?This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.