Toward a Theory of Systems Engineering

该奖项的研究目标是提供一个框架，并开始推导数学上严格的系统工程理论。系统工程的教学和实践通常基于一组启发式方法，这些方法有时有效，但并不总是有效。缺乏严格的理论导致许多项目遇到延误，严重的成本超支和性能不佳。据估计，由此给联邦政府造成的损失，特别是通过军事和其他主要联邦采购造成的损失，可能每天超过2亿美元。这些损失伴随着私营部门的同等损失。系统工程理论将作为系统工程实践有效性的测试，并为健全的系统设计和决策制定提供理论，这将大大减少这些损失。此外，严谨的理论将为完善的系统工程教育提供基础，并有可能在整个工程课程中彻底改变工程教育。例如，它将构成不确定条件下工程设计决策教学的基础。值得注意的是，系统工程的综合理论可以从简单的偏好陈述中推导出来，“我想要我能得到的最好的系统”，其中“最好”的定义完全留给了项目经理的判断力。这项工作所基于的洞察力观察到，设计和系统工程是决策过程，它依赖于能够实现最佳系统决策制定的偏好，而不是对设计决策施加约束的物理原则。本项目所采用的方法与以往推导设计和系统工程理论的努力有很大的不同，其实施将需要严格应用和整合决策理论、偏好理论、概率论、博弈论和机制设计。这些数学分支与工程的合并将代表着一种变革性的进步，为系统工程的理论和方法的有效性提供了试金石。这项工作的目标是建立一套规则，这些规则将为工程设计和系统工程的实施定义有效的方法、程序和过程。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The research objective of this award is to provide a framework for and begin the derivation of a mathematically rigorous theory of systems engineering. Systems engineering has often been taught and practiced based on a set of heuristics that work sometimes, but not always. The lack of a rigorous theory has contributed to many projects encountering delays, significant cost overruns, and under-performance. It has been estimated that the resulting losses to the Federal government, particularly via military and other major Federal procurements, likely exceed $200 million per day. These losses are accompanied by equivalent losses in the private sector. A theory of systems engineering will serve as a test of the validity of systems engineering practices and posit a theory for sound systems design and decision making, which hold considerable promise of substantially reducing these losses. In addition, a rigorous theory will provide a basis for sound systems engineering education and hold the potential to revolutionize engineering education across the entire engineering curriculum. For example, it will form the basis for teaching engineering design decision making under uncertainty.It is noted that a comprehensive theory of systems engineering can be derived from the simple preference statement, "I want the best system I can get," where the definition of "best" is left entirely to the discretion of the project manager. The insight upon which this effort is based observes that design and systems engineering are decision-making processes, which rely on preferences that enable optimal system decision making rather than physical principals that impose constraints on design decisions. The approach in this project is a significant deviation from previous efforts to the derivation of a theory of design and systems engineering, and its implementation will demand the rigorous application and integration of decision theory, preference theory, probability theory, game theory and mechanism design. The merger of these branches of mathematics with engineering will represent a transformative advance, providing a litmus test for the validity of theories of and approaches to systems engineering. A goal of this work will be the establishment of a set of rules that will define valid methods, procedures and processes for the conduct of engineering design and systems engineering.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.