I-Corps: Decision Support Tool to Assess Distributed Electricity Needs

这个i-Corps项目的广泛影响/商业潜力将对能源行业产生直接影响，并对所有连接到能源电网的人产生间接影响。在过去的十年里，能源的产生、来源和分配方法一直在不断发展。2018年，太阳能发电占美国发电量的1.6%，高于2012年的0.11%。到2020年，太阳能发电量预计将占美国发电量的5%。随着太阳能生产和分配效率的提高，当地房主也承担了能源发电者的角色，甚至在有关网络计量的政策下，获得了向电网供电的信用。在规划能源分配框架时，公用事业公司在规划其能源分配框架时，必须考虑到能源消耗和发电的这些变化。设计能够准确估计近期(5-10天)当地天气预报及其对太阳能生产变化的影响的方法和工具，将对公用事业公司产生积极影响，减少目前与预报错误相关的利益相关者成本。该i-Corps项目旨在为决策支持工具进行客户发现和验证，该工具结合了本地化的实时天气数据和近期预测的天气数据，以预测特定地点的天气参数，以便估计区域层面的太阳能发电量。该工具帮助公用事业公司(拥有太阳能电池板和/或拥有太阳能电池板的客户)平衡负载需求和供应。此外，该工具还可帮助太阳能系统所有者验证系统是否工作正常。I-Corps项目是先前研究的延伸，目的是开发一个框架来对光伏系统的长期效率和可靠性进行建模，然后通过与实时光伏系统性能数据的比较来验证准确性。从实践的角度来看，这产生了一个评估使用的太阳能系统的性能和价值的模型。该i-Corps项目利用先前开发的框架，但结合了多个天气数据集(例如，实时天气数据、历史天气数据和近期预测天气数据)来估计近期(5-7天)的表现。建议这种对大数据的关注将有利于公用事业公司平衡需求和供应。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The broader impact/commercial potential of this I-Corps project will have a direct impact on the energy industry, and indirect effects to all people connected to the energy grid. Energy generation, sources and distribution methods have been continuously evolving over the past decade. In 2018, solar-produced energy accounted for 1.6% of the electricity generated in the U.S., up from 0.11% in 2012. By 2020, solar-produced energy is forecasted to account for 5% of U.S. generated electricity. With the increased efficiency associated with solar energy production and distribution, local homeowners have also assumed the role of energy generators, even getting credit for access electricity supplied to the grid given the policy around net-metering. When planning their energy distribution frameworks, utility companies have to take these changes in energy consumption and generation into account when planning their energy distribution frameworks. Devising methods and tools which can accurately estimate near-future (5-10 days) local weather forecasts and its implications for changes in solar energy production will positively impact utility companies, reducing stakeholder costs currently associated with forecasting errors.This I-Corps project aims to conduct customer discovery and validation for a decision support tool which incorporates localized real-time weather data and near-future forecasted weather data to predict site-specific weather parameters for the purpose of estimating solar energy generation at the region level. This tool assists utility companies (who own solar arrays and/or have customers who own solar arrays) to level-out load demand and supply. In addition, this tool assists solar energy system owners to verify the system is working properly. This I-Corps project is an extension of prior research to develop a framework to model long-term efficiency and reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems, and then verify accuracy through comparison to real-time PV system performance data. From a practical perspective, this produced a model to estimate performance and value of used solar energy systems. This I-Corps project leverages the previously developed framework but incorporates multiple weather data sets (e.g., real-time weather data, historical weather data, and near-future forecasted weather data) to estimate near-future (5-7 days) performance. It is proposed that this focus on big data will be beneficial to utility companies to level out demand and supply.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.