RAPID: Groundwater resilience to hydrologic extremes and climate variability: The case of Hurricane Dorian

飓风多里安(2019年9月)的影响是灾难性的，特别是在大巴哈马，飓风在那里产生了风暴潮，导致该岛地下水资源遭到大范围洪水和咸水污染。淡水透镜(FWL)形式的地下水是岛上唯一的饮用水来源。目前尚不清楚FWL从咸水污染中恢复的速度有多快，以及雨季降水的强度、持续时间和频率以及地下水含水层的特点如何推动这种恢复。这项研究的主要目标是了解受风暴引起的盐碱化影响的净水的恢复速度如何与气候特征(降水强度、持续时间和频率)有关，未来的净水恢复将如何受到海平面上升和气候变化导致的长时间干旱的影响，以及人类对这些事件的反应，如过度抽水活动。这项研究将为本科生和研究生提供培训和国际研究经验的机会，并与受咸水入侵影响的地区的利益攸关方接触。假设受风暴引起的咸水入侵影响的淡水晶状体(FWL)的恢复速度主要由气候变化和气候变化驱动。这项研究将使收集时间敏感、易腐烂的地下水数据成为可能，这些数据与飓风多里安过后大巴哈马岛上风暴引起的咸水入侵有关。这些数据集稍后将用于建立稳健的三维密度相关模型，以模拟FWL系统中的海水入侵过程，并准确预测海水入侵的程度、其时间动态和冲刷过程，以及海平面上升和补给变化等气候应激因素的综合影响。最终目标是建立一个框架，将降水的季节性预报与最先进的数值模式结合起来，以评估气候多变性和气候变化对天气预报系统恢复速度的影响。该项目将为萨克拉门托州立大学和佛罗里达理工学院的学生提供培训机会和国际研究经验。萨克拉门托州立大学是一家西班牙裔服务机构，也是一家亚裔美国人和美洲原住民太平洋岛民服务机构。公民科学数据收集倡议将为当地高中生和巴哈马大学的学生提供互动和参与产生科学知识的机会。地方水管理当局将从新数据的生成中受益。基于这些数据的后续模型开发将提供给地方当局，并将帮助他们进行决策和规划程序。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The impact of Hurricane Dorian (September 2019) was catastrophic, especially in Grand Bahama, where the hurricane generated a storm surge that drove extensive flooding and saltwater contamination of the groundwater resources of the island. Groundwater, in the form of freshwater lenses (FWLs), is the sole source of drinking water on the island. It is unclear how quickly FWLs recover from saltwater contamination, and how that recovery is driven by the intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation during the wet season and the characteristics of groundwater aquifers. The overarching goal of this study is to understand how the rate of recovery of FWLs that have been impacted by storm-induced salinization is connected to climatological characteristics (intensity, duration and frequency of precipitation) and how future FWL recovery will be affected by elevated sea level and extended periods of drought induced by climate change, as well as the human response to these events, such as excessive pumping activity. The study will provide opportunities for training and international research experiences for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as engagement with stakeholders in the region impacted by saltwater intrusion.It is hypothesized that the rate of recovery of freshwater lenses (FWLs) impacted by storm-induced saltwater intrusion is primarily driven by climatic variability and climate change. This study will enable the collection of time-sensitive, perishable groundwater data pertaining to storm-induced saltwater intrusion on the island of Grand Bahama following Hurricane Dorian. These datasets will later be used to build a robust three-dimensional, density dependent model to simulate the saltwater intrusion process in the FWL system and accurately predict the seawater intrusion extent, its temporal dynamics and the flushing process, as well as the combined effect of climate stressors such as sea level rise and change in recharge. The ultimate goal is to develop a framework that combines seasonal forecasts of precipitation with state-of-the art numerical models to assess the impact of climatic variability and climate change on the rate of recovery of the FWLs. This project will provide training opportunities and international research experiences to students at Sacramento State, which is a Hispanic Serving Institution and an Asian American and Native American Pacific Islander Serving Institution, and at Florida Institute of Technology. The citizen science data collection initiative will provide opportunities to local high school students and students from University of the Bahamas to interact and participate in the generation of scientific knowledge. Local water management authorities will benefit from the generation of new data. Subsequent development of models based on these data will be available to the local authorities and will assist them in decision making and planning procedures.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.