P2C2: Paleoclimatology of Cuba based on Stalagmite Oxygen Isotope Records--Hydrological Sensitivity and Causes of Variability in the Caribbean Region

该项目旨在重建全新世期间加勒比海和墨西哥高尔夫地区的降水变化。降水重建将基于从古巴西部收集的石笋中测量的氧和微量元素（镁/钙和锶/钙比）的稳定同位素组成。此外，气候模式模拟在过去的千年将被用来调查大规模的气候动态与极端事件所揭示的石笋氧同位素记录。这些新的数据加上数据模型综合，有可能提高对加勒比和墨西哥高尔夫地区水文气候变异驱动因素的认识，包括热带气旋的作用。 潜在的更广泛影响包括：1）古巴西部过去16000年来连续和高分辨率的古降雨记录; 2）更好地了解加勒比海和墨西哥高尔夫地区的水文气候变化以及极端事件的潜在机制;（3）估算水文循环对气候系统外部（如轨道强迫）和内部（如厄尔尼诺南方涛动）过程的敏感性。该项目将支持研究生从热带洞穴沉积物记录中接受古气候研究的分析和理论培训。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to reconstruct precipitation changes in the Caribbean and Golf of Mexico regions during the Holocene. The precipitation reconstruction will be based on stable isotopic composition of Oxygen and trace elements (Magnesium/Calcium and Strontium/Calcium ratios) measured from stalagmites collected in Western Cuba. In addition, climate model simulations over the last millennium will be used to investigate the large-scale climate dynamics associated with extreme events revealed by the stalagmite oxygen isotope records. These new data together with the data-model synthesis have the potential to improve the understanding of the hydroclimate variability drivers in the Caribbean and Golf of Mexico regions, including the role of tropical cyclones. The potential Broader Impacts include: 1) a continuous and highly resolved paleorainfall record from western Cuba spanning the last 16.000 years; 2) a greater understanding of the hydroclimate variability in the Caribbean and Golf of Mexico regions and the underlying mechanism of extreme events; and 3) estimates of hydrological cycle sensitivity to external (e.g. orbital forcing) and internal (e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation) processes of the climate system. This project will support graduate students to receive analytical and theoretical training in paleoclimate research from tropical speleothem records.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.