SRS RN: Preparing for Just and Sustainable Climate Migration

环境变化和灾难，如反复发生的洪水、野火、干旱和酷热，正在推动美国居民从危险的地方搬到更安全的地方。在发生危机之前及早了解可能的国内移民，可以确保迁移者和他们所前往的收容社区的福祉。这笔规划赠款的重点是改善与气候有关的人口流动的预测和规划，特别是新英格兰内陆地区的接收区。规划过程包括完善科学模型、收集数据来源、进行研究试点、加强研究团队和加强公众参与。这一规划赠款确定了将气候压力和经济/技术条件纳入区域移民模型的途径。该项目将环境变化、人口变化和人口流动的数据结合到动态的、多方向的系统模拟中。调查人员评估了美国国税局(IRS)、美国社区调查(American Community Survey)和当前人口调查(Current Popular Survey)等传统数据来源，以及移动卡车租赁和危险多发地区在线房地产搜索等新数据来源。区域间移徙流动使用经验模型和基于模拟的模型进行分析。情景规划研讨会评估项目数据和方法的效用和感知有效性，以指导当地规划和政策决策。研讨会汇集了区域规划局(RPA)合作伙伴、部落民族和代表小规模社区的团体。科学研究和研讨会共同建立了对应用于当地和地区社区的气候迁移模型的理解。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Environmental change and disasters, such as repeated floods, wildfires, droughts, and extreme heat, are pushing U.S. residents to move from hazardous to safer locations. Early knowledge of likely domestic migration, before it is a crisis, can ensure the well-being of both movers and the receiving communities to which they go. This planning grant focuses on improving projections and planning for climate-related population movement, with a particular focus on receiving areas of inland New England. The planning process involves refining the scientific model, gathering data sources, conducting a study pilot, strengthening the research team, and enhancing public engagement. This planning grant identifies paths toward incorporating climate stresses and economic/technical conditions into regional migration modeling. The project combines data on environmental change, demographic change, and population movement into dynamic, multidirectional systems simulations. Investigators evaluate conventional data sources such as the Internal Revenue Service, the American Community Survey, and the Current Population Survey, alongside novel data sources, such as moving truck rentals and online real-estate searches in hazard-prone areas. Interregional migration flows are analyzed using empirical and simulation-based models. A scenario planning workshop assesses the utility and perceived validity of the project’s data and methods for guiding local planning and policy decisions. The workshop brings together Regional Planning Agency (RPA) partners, Tribal Nations, and groups representing minoritized communities. Together, the scientific research and workshop build understanding of climate migration modeling as applied to local and regional communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.