Collaborative Research: An analysis of 150 years of sea surface and subsurface observations to map whole-ocean temperature and detect circulation change

在这个项目中，海洋温度的表面和次表面观测将与海洋环流的数值模型相结合，以最佳方式估计过去150年来海洋温度和热量吸收的变化。海洋的热量吸收是了解地球气候在多大程度上脱离能量平衡和限制因温室气体增加而引起的平衡升温的一个关键量。这一综合分析将有助于检验海洋温度观测中是否存在系统误差，并审查过去150年来海洋环流是否发生变化以及如何发生变化。研究成果将包括一个质量受控的海洋温度观测数据集和一个相应的现代变暖时代随时间演变的三维绘图，海洋表面和次表层海洋温度观测将与一个逆海洋环流模型相结合，以限制过去150年的温度和海洋热量吸收。历史地下温度观测将用于评估数据集内和数据集之间的随机和系统误差。这项检查将利用两个线性混合效应的方法，以前开发的调查和应用，以确定海洋表面温度观测之间的偏移，以及数据约束环流模型也以前开发的调查和应用的目的相互比较内部和表面边界属性。现有的环流估计，以现代示踪剂为条件，将用于测试过去150年来海洋环流的变化。将制作过去150年海洋温度的三维绘图，其中结合了海洋表面和内部观测的制约因素。测绘将利用受数据约束的环流模型，并将重复进行，以开发多个集合，捕捉与随机和系统观测误差有关的不确定性，以及环流和初始条件的不确定性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

In this project, surface and subsurface observations of ocean temperature will be combined with a numerical model of the ocean circulation to optimally estimate changes in ocean temperature and heat uptake over the past 150 years. Ocean heat uptake is a critical quantity for understanding the degree to which the Earth’s climate is out of energetic equilibrium and for purposes of constraining equilibrium warming in response to increases in greenhouse gases. This integrated analysis will allow testing for the presence of systematic errors in ocean temperature observations and to examine whether and how ocean circulation has varied over the last 150 years. Products of the research will include a quality-controlled dataset of ocean temperature observations and a corresponding time-evolving, three- dimensional mapping over the modern warming era.Sea surface and subsurface ocean temperature observations will be combined with an inverse ocean-circulation model to constrain temperature and ocean heat uptake over the last 150 years. Historical subsurface temperature observations will be used to evaluate random and systematic errors within and across data sets. This examination will leverage both a linear-mixed-effects methodology previously developed by the investigators and applied to identify offsets among sea-surface temperature observations, as well as a data-constrained circulation model also previously developed by the investigators and applied for purposes of inter-comparing interior and surface boundary properties. An existing circulation estimate, conditioned on modern tracers, will be used to test for changes in ocean circulation over the last 150 years. A three-dimensional mapping of ocean temperatures over the last 150 years that combines constraints from surface and interior ocean observations will be produced. The mapping will make use of the data-constrained circulation model and will be performed repeatedly in order to develop multiple ensembles that capture uncertainties associated with random and systematic observational errors, as well as uncertainties in circulation and initial conditions. Integration over this temperature mapping will provide estimates of ocean heat uptake and associated uncertainties.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.