Collaborative Research: An analysis of 150 years of sea surface and subsurface observations to map whole-ocean temperature and detect circulation change

在这个项目中，海洋温度的表面和地下观测将与海洋环流的数值模式相结合，以最优地估计过去150年来海洋温度和热吸收的变化。海洋热吸收是了解地球气候在多大程度上失去能量平衡的一个关键量，也是为了限制因温室气体增加而导致的平衡变暖。这一综合分析将检验在海洋温度观测中是否存在系统误差，并检验在过去150年中海洋环流是否以及如何变化。这项研究的成果将包括一个有质量控制的海洋温度观测数据集，以及相应的随时间变化的现代变暖时代的三维地图。海面和地下海洋温度观测将与逆海洋环流模式相结合，以限制过去150年的温度和海洋热吸收。历史地下温度观测将用于评估数据集内部和数据集之间的随机和系统误差。这项研究将利用研究人员先前开发的线性混合效应方法，并应用于确定海面温度观测中的偏移量，以及研究人员先前开发的数据约束环流模型，用于内部和表面边界特性的相互比较。以现代示踪剂为条件的现有环流估计将用于测试过去150年海洋环流的变化。结合海洋表面和海洋内部观测的约束条件，将绘制出过去150年海洋温度的三维地图。制图将利用数据约束的环流模型，并将重复进行，以便开发多个综合系统，捕捉与随机和系统观测误差有关的不确定性，以及环流和初始条件的不确定性。对这一温度图的综合将提供对海洋热吸收和相关不确定性的估计。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In this project, surface and subsurface observations of ocean temperature will be combined with a numerical model of the ocean circulation to optimally estimate changes in ocean temperature and heat uptake over the past 150 years. Ocean heat uptake is a critical quantity for understanding the degree to which the Earth’s climate is out of energetic equilibrium and for purposes of constraining equilibrium warming in response to increases in greenhouse gases. This integrated analysis will allow testing for the presence of systematic errors in ocean temperature observations and to examine whether and how ocean circulation has varied over the last 150 years. Products of the research will include a quality-controlled dataset of ocean temperature observations and a corresponding time-evolving, three- dimensional mapping over the modern warming era.Sea surface and subsurface ocean temperature observations will be combined with an inverse ocean-circulation model to constrain temperature and ocean heat uptake over the last 150 years. Historical subsurface temperature observations will be used to evaluate random and systematic errors within and across data sets. This examination will leverage both a linear-mixed-effects methodology previously developed by the investigators and applied to identify offsets among sea-surface temperature observations, as well as a data-constrained circulation model also previously developed by the investigators and applied for purposes of inter-comparing interior and surface boundary properties. An existing circulation estimate, conditioned on modern tracers, will be used to test for changes in ocean circulation over the last 150 years. A three-dimensional mapping of ocean temperatures over the last 150 years that combines constraints from surface and interior ocean observations will be produced. The mapping will make use of the data-constrained circulation model and will be performed repeatedly in order to develop multiple ensembles that capture uncertainties associated with random and systematic observational errors, as well as uncertainties in circulation and initial conditions. Integration over this temperature mapping will provide estimates of ocean heat uptake and associated uncertainties.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.