RAPID: Comparative Study of Rally Effects During the Ukraine War

学者和记者很早就认识到了一种现象，即在危机时期公民支持他们国家的领导人，这一现象被称为“团结在旗帜周围”。然而，在当今时代，日益加剧的政治两极分化可能意味着，公民永远不会支持反对党的领导人，无论国内和国际事件如何。我们调查是否出现了“围绕国旗的集会”效应的新提法：“围绕民主的集会”--即现在的危机导致民主国家公民对民主原则的支持增加，而不是对这些国家政治领导人的支持增加。我们收集了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间的调查和社交媒体数据，以研究美国、英国和德国公民的意见，以及这些国家的政治领导人在战时使用的言论。这一独特的民意和精英修辞数据集可供其他研究人员使用。我们进行了一项多国、多波的设计，以测试俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间“围旗集会”和“围旗集会”模式和效果的出现和反应。由于这项研究是在冲突期间进行的，同时进行的社交媒体分析使我们能够在危机期间谈论公众和“舆论领袖”之间的差异。这项调查分三波进行--两波在危机期间，一波在危机基本结束后(或在这三个国家都明显变得不那么突出)。我们使用社交媒体来捕捉每个国家的精英言论，以跟踪他们对危机和本国政治领导层的言论。我们将社交媒体数据与我们的调查相结合，以确定参与者的媒体环境。总而言之，这个项目让我们打开了经常隐藏着公众对外交政策的意见的“黑匣子”。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Scholars and journalists have long recognized a phenomenon called “rally ‘round the flag” in which citizens support their country’s leaders during a time of crisis. In the current era, however, increased political polarization may mean citizens never support leaders from an opposition party regardless of national and world events. We investigate whether a new formulation of the “rally ‘round the flag” effect has emerged: “rally ‘round democracy” – i.e., crises now lead to an increase in support for democratic principles among citizens in democratic countries instead of increased support for political leaders in those countries. We collect survey and social media data during the Russian invasion of Ukraine to study the opinions of citizens in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany and the rhetoric used by political leaders in those countries during wartime. This unique dataset of public opinion and elite rhetoric is available for use by other researchers. We conduct a multi-country, multi-wave design to test the emergence and responsiveness of “rally ‘round the flag” and "rally 'round the flag" patterns and effects during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since the research is conducted during the conflict, the concurrent social media analysis allows us to speak to differences between the public and “opinion leaders” during a crisis. The survey takes place over three waves – two during the crisis, and one after the crisis largely concludes (or becomes significantly less salient in each of the three countries). We use social media to capture elite rhetoric in each country to track what they say about the crisis and their country’s political leadership. We merge the social media data with our surveys to contextualize our participants’ media environments. In sum, this project allows us to open the “black box” that often hides public opinion on foreign policy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.