Convergence Accelerator Track J: Convergence Towards a Disaster Resilient Food System

该项目支持在面临飓风风险的社区提高粮食系统的复原力和粮食安全。这个融合加速器第一阶段项目的更广泛影响和社会效益是提高粮食系统的复原力，减少灾害引起的粮食不安全，改善社会中个人的健康和福祉。为了实现这一目标，趋同研究小组将制定社区粮食安全年度衡量标准，并为有助于社区粮食安全的各个系统制定子尺度。这项措施将帮助各组织和机构确定飓风灾害后粮食不安全风险较高的社区，并为社区提供可采取行动的信息，以建立粮食系统对灾害和环境变化的复原力。在2008年至2018年期间，每年有11%至15%的美国人口经历粮食不安全。灾害发生后，粮食和营养无保障率可能增加三倍。在灾难前挣扎的家庭面临的风险最大。在家庭和社区恢复期间，粮食和营养无保障率持续多年上升。目前，美国农业部（USDA）每年衡量美国家庭和个人层面的粮食和营养不安全状况，每四年将粮食沙漠作为社区层面粮食和营养安全的一个单一维度。食物沙漠是社区零售食品可获得性的一个指标，但却忽略了影响社区一级粮食和营养安全的多个其他系统。该项目旨在创建一个衡量粮食系统功能的粮食恢复力、安全和可持续解决方案指数（FIRST）。FIRST将把灾害科学、海岸工程、食品和营养安全、非营利管理和供应链管理领域的专家提供的信息与当地社区的知识联合收割机结合起来。粮食系统是一个复杂的适应性系统，由一系列自主的、相互依存的子系统组成。当灾难发生时，多个系统会受到影响。目前，我们依赖于单一维度和不经常的粮食供应和获取措施。此外，目前的措施没有考虑到多个子系统的灾害风险。拟议的研究将产生粮食系统和子系统运作以及社区粮食安全的具体和及时的指标，为社区提供可操作的数据，以加强粮食系统的复原力，减少飓风灾害后的粮食和营养不安全。改进后的指标将支持减缓和防备环境变化，特别是那些风险最大的环境变化，并支持更有效地应对和恢复粮食系统和粮食安全。使用融合方法和系统动力学建模方法，我们的学术团队，非营利组织，政府和行业合作伙伴将开发和验证第一。该研究小组将开发一个概念和计算模型的社区层面的粮食系统弹性（第一），然后运行该模型来描述粮食系统弹性试点社区在北卡罗来纳州。将在北卡罗来纳州的三个历史飓风事件中对计算模型进行评估，以评估度量的有效性和可靠性。北卡罗来纳州试点县的FIRST分数以及历史案例数据将与社区成员共享，以确定结果的真实性，并获取有关FIRST分数的有用性以及如何使用分数来加强粮食系统弹性的信息。来自试点社区的信息将为在全国范围内扩大飓风模型奠定基础，并为建立社区粮食抗灾能力制定切实可行的解决方案。社区一级的年度衡量将支持更公平的备灾、救灾、恢复和减灾，以减少灾害引起的粮食和营养不安全。经济、卫生、社会和政治制度的子系统分数将支持更公平的政策和计划，以帮助面临粮食不安全和灾害风险最大的人群，包括低收入、种族和少数民族，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查进行评估，被认为值得支持的搜索.

This project supports improved food system resilience and food security in communities at-risk for hurricanes. The broader impact and societal benefits of this Convergence Accelerator Phase I project is to improve food system resilience and reduce disaster-induced food insecurity, improving the health and well-being of individuals in society. To achieve this goal, the convergence research team will develop an annual measure of community food security and subscales for individual systems that contribute to community food security. This measure will help organizations and agencies identify communities at higher risk for food insecurity following hurricane disasters and provide actionable information for communities to build food system resilience to hazards and environmental change. Between 11-15% of the U.S. population experienced food insecurity annually between 2008 and 2018. Food and nutrition insecurity rates can increase threefold following disasters. Households struggling before a disaster are at greatest risk. Increased food and nutrition insecurity rates persist for years while households and communities recover. Currently, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) measures household and individual level food and nutrition insecurity in the US annually and food deserts as a single dimension of community level food and nutrition security every four years. Food deserts are an indicator of accessibility of retail food in communities but miss multiple additional systems that influence community-level food and nutrition security. This project aims to create a Food Index for Resilience, Security, & Tangible Solutions (FIRST) that measures food system functioning. The FIRST will combine information from experts in the fields of disaster science, coastal engineering, food and nutrition security, nonprofit management, and supply chain management with local community knowledge. The FIRST will provide a tool for communities preparing for, responding to, and recovering from disasters and environmental change.The food system is a complex adaptive system made up of a set of autonomous, interdependent sub-systems. When a disaster occurs, multiple systems are impacted. Currently, we rely on single-dimensional and infrequent measures of food availability and accessibility. Further, current measures do not account for disaster risk to multiple sub-systems. The proposed research will generate specific and timely metrics of food system and sub-system functioning and community food security to provide communities with actionable data to bolster food system resilience and reduce food and nutrition insecurity following hurricane disasters. Improved metrics will support mitigation and preparedness amid slower onset environmental changes, especially among those most at-risk as well as support more effective response and recovery of food systems and food security. Using a convergence approach and systems dynamics modeling methodology, our team of academics, non-profits, government, and industry partners will develop and validate the FIRST. The research team will develop a conceptual and computational model of community-level food system resilience (FIRST) then run the model to describe food system resilience for pilot communities in North Carolina. The computational model will be evaluated in three historical hurricane events in North Carolina to evaluate the validity and reliability of the metric. FIRST scores for pilot counties in North Carolina as well as historical case data will be shared with community members to ground truth the results and elicit information about the usefulness of FIRST scores and how the scores could be used to bolster food system resilience. Information from pilot communities will set the stage for scaling up the model nationally for hurricanes and developing a roadmap with tangible solutions for building community food resilience. Annual measurement at the community-level will support more equitable disaster preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation to reduce disaster-induced food and nutrition insecurity. Sub-system scores for economic, health, social, and political systems will support more equitable policies and programs to assist populations at greatest risk for both food insecurity and disaster exposure, including lower income, racial and ethnic minority, and households with children.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.