CAREER: Advancing Modeling of Wildfire Smoke

该项目旨在减少野火烟雾建模中的不确定性，以提高我们对烟雾事件的预测能力，并改善对一般人群的烟雾咨询。这不仅可以增强我们对野火烟雾事件的了解，还可以减少受野火事件影响的社区的有害污染物暴露，并为决策者和公众提供新的工具。现有的观测结果将用于更新野火烟雾模型，野火烟雾预报员将通过定期研讨会接受培训并分享知识。来自这些终端用户野火烟雾预报员的反馈将被纳入研究计划，以确保在这项工作过程中获得的新知识不仅将推进该领域，而且还将覆盖受野火烟雾事件影响的社区。这项建议包括三项主要任务。首先，将收集卫星和地面对烟雾和烟雾相关变量的观测，并评估其在野火烟雾模型中使用的可行性。其次，这些观测结果将通过改进模型参数化（如烟雾排放、喷射高度、化学演变和光学性质）来评估和改进烟雾模拟。最后，将对更新的野火烟雾预报系统的潜在最终用户进行培训，目的是制定评估和建立常规或业务烟雾预报系统的框架。此外，这项工作将为潜在的最终用户提供一个平台，用于开发和共享常规或操作野火烟雾预报系统的方法。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project seeks to reduce uncertainties in wildfire smoke modeling in order to enhance our ability to make forecasts of smoke events and improve smoke advisories to the general population. This would not only enhance our understanding of wildfire smoke events, but also reduce harmful pollutant exposures for communities affected by wildfire events and provide new tools for decision makers and the public. Existing observations will be used to update wildfire smoke models, and wildfire smoke forecasters will receive training and share knowledge via regular workshops. Feedback from these end user wildfire smoke forecasters will be incorporated into the research plan to ensure that new knowledge gained during the course of this work will not only advance the field but also reach communities affected by wildfire smoke events. There are three primary tasks included in this proposal. First, satellite and ground-based observations of smoke and smoke-relevant variables will be collected and assessed for their viability of usage within wildfire smoke models. Second, these observations will be used to evaluate and improve smoke simulations via improvements to model parameterizations such as smoke emissions, injection heights, chemical evolution, and optical properties. Finally, training will be conducted to potential end users of the updated wildfire smoke forecasting system with the goal of developing a framework for evaluating and establishing routine or operational smoke forecasting systems. Additionally, this work will provide potential end users with a platform for developing and sharing methods for routine or operational wildfire smoke forecasting systems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.