ORCC: Marine predator and prey response to climate change: Synthesis of Acoustics, Physiology, Prey, and Habitat In a Rapidly changing Environment (SAPPHIRE)

海洋正在经历气候变化的重大影响，但对海洋生物的影响在很大程度上仍不清楚。关键是要了解快速的环境变化将如何影响猎物物种的可获得性和质量，从而这些变化将如何影响捕食者的健康和种群的复原力。该项目确定并描述了环境变化对一个重要的海洋猎物物种(磷虾)及其主要捕食者之一(蓝鲸)的影响。该项目考察了不断变化的海洋条件如何影响磷虾的供应和质量，以及这如何影响蓝鲸的身体状况、激素水平以及觅食和繁殖努力。对被捕食者和捕食者生理和适合度的关注将有助于发展新的物种健康模型(SHM)，这将促进对捕食者和被捕食者对气候条件变化的共同反应以及物种健康对种群弹性的影响的理解。SHM将提供一种监测和预测物种对气候变化反应的方法，方法是将管理工作的重点转向基于健康的阈值，这可以在种群水平下降之前采取缓解措施。此外，了解磷虾对不同环境条件的反应将为海洋猎物和捕食者对气候变化的广泛反应提供信息，而公众对标志性蓝鲸的关注可以提高社会意识并推动行为变化。物种在较短的时间尺度上对气候变化的适应能力将取决于个体通过行为和生理反应途径调节的适应性和繁殖力。该项目旨在描述海洋猎物(磷虾；南方夜蛾)和捕食者(蓝鲸；短尾巴拉诺翅目)对环境变化的个体和种群健康的共同反应，使人们能够全面了解气候变化条件下对物种适宜性的影响。将在连续三年(2024-2026年)期间收集新西兰南塔拉纳基湾磷虾和蓝鲸的生态和生理数据。受控实验将确定温度对磷虾代谢率、能量需求和身体状况(生物能量和生化反应)的影响。捕食蓝鲸的猎物的可用性将通过网状拖网和主动声学来评估，以确定磷虾的能量含量、分布和密度。猎物和环境条件的变化对个体鲸鱼生理的影响将通过无人驾驶飞机系统对身体状况的评估来记录营养状态，并对皮肤和鲸脂组织进行活组织采样以量化压力(糖皮质激素)、营养(甲状腺、瘦素)和生殖(黄体酮、睾酮)激素水平。在种群水平上，水听器将记录蓝鲸的发声，以量化与猎物和环境条件变化相关的觅食和繁殖努力的变化。这些数据流将通过多变量分析和物种健康模型的开发来整合，以了解猎物和捕食者对环境变化的共同反应，预测物种健康影响和适应结果，并确定猎物和捕食者种群恢复能力的阈值。该奖项由GEO/OCE生物海洋学计划和BIO/iOS组织应对气候变化计划共同资助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Oceans are experiencing significant impacts of climate change, yet the effects on marine organisms remain largely unknown. It is critical to understand how rapid environmental changes will impact the availability and quality of prey species, and consequently how these changes will impact predator health and population resilience. This project identifies and describes the impacts of environmental variation on a crucial marine prey species (krill) and one of its primary predators (blue whale). The project examines how changing ocean conditions affect the availability and quality of krill, and how this then impacts blue whale body condition, hormone levels, and foraging and reproductive effort. The focus on prey and predator physiology and fitness will inform the development of novel Species Health Models (SHM), which will advance the understanding of prey-predator co-responses to changing climatic conditions and the influence of species health on population resilience. SHM will provide a way to monitor and predict species response to climate change by shifting the focus of management efforts toward thresholds based on health, which could enable mitigation measures before population-level declines occur. Furthermore, understanding krill response to variable environmental conditions will inform management of marine prey and predator response to climate change broadly, while public attention on the iconic blue whale can enhance societal awareness and motivate behavioral change. Species resilience to climate change over shorter timescales will be determined by fitness and fecundity of individuals mediated through behavioral and physiological response pathways. This project aims to describe the co-response of marine prey (krill; Nyctiphanes australis) and predator (blue whale; Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda) health to environmental variation at individual and population levels, enabling a comprehensive understanding of impacts on species fitness under climate change conditions. Data will be collected on krill and blue whale ecology and physiology in the South Taranaki Bight of New Zealand during three consecutive years (2024-2026). Controlled experiments will determine effects of temperature on krill metabolic rates, energy requirements, and body condition (bioenergetic and biochemical responses). The availability of prey to foraging blue whales will be assessed through net tows and active acoustics to determine krill energetic content, distribution, and density. Impacts of changes in prey and environmental conditions on individual whale physiology will be quantified through Unoccupied Aircraft Systems assessments of body condition to document nutritive state, and biopsy sampling of skin and blubber tissue to quantify stress (glucocorticoids), nutrition (thyroid, leptin) and reproductive (progesterone, testosterone) hormone levels. At the population level, hydrophones will record blue whale vocalizations to quantify changes in foraging and breeding effort relative to changes in prey and environmental conditions. These data streams will be integrated through multivariate analyses and development of Species Health Models to understand prey and predator co-response to environmental change, predict species health impacts and fitness consequences, and identify thresholds in prey and predator population resilience.This award was co-funded through the GEO/OCE Biological Oceanography Program and the BIO/IOS Organismal Responses to Climate Change Program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.