Projecting temperature-related mortality in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios - considering the role of cold effects and precipitation in future projections

温度和气候在许多方面影响人类健康。其中最突出的健康影响是所谓的热效应，它描述了高于阈值温度的全因和特定原因的发病率和死亡率的增加，阈值温度大约位于第90和第95百分位之间。这一临界温度以及与热有关的发病率和死亡率的增加在不同地区和不同的亚组中各不相同。其他大气参数，如湿度、风速、短波辐射、空气污染以及非大气参数，如空间、人口或社会经济特征，都会产生变化。气候变化的预测后果表明，与高温有关的死亡率将增加，而与寒冷有关的死亡率是否会下降尚不清楚。此外，人口、流行病学和社会经济变化或城市化等动态可能会影响和改变未来的热死亡率。在正在进行的研究项目中，我正在考虑老龄化、社会经济地位的提高和城市化对热过度死亡率的预测。此外，我还对冷效应和降水的影响进行了深入的分析。我的研究结果表明，寒冷影响发生在一个非常短的时间尺度上（与中纬度国家的研究结果相反，那里的寒冷影响发生在中期尺度上）。此外，分析表明，在夏季和季风季节，降水显着减轻热效应。在拟议的6个月延长研究奖学金期间，我打算预测未来在气候变化情景下与寒冷有关的死亡率。此外，我预计将包括降水的缓解影响到预测与热有关的死亡率。该项目的目的是对未来与温度有关的死亡率作出复杂和可靠的预测。这种预测可以为卫生专家和决策者提供各种未来趋势、背景、风险和机会，有助于规划适应战略。

Temperature and climate affect human health in many ways. Among the most prominent health effects are so called heat effects which describe the increase in all-cause and cause-specific morbidity and mortality above a threshold temperature, located approximately between the 90th and 95th percentile. This threshold temperature as well as the increase in heat-related morbidity and mortality varies over different areas and with different sub-groups. Modifications arise from other atmospheric parameters such as humidity, wind speed, shortwave radiation, air pollution as well as non-atmospheric parameters such as spatial, demographic or socio-economic characteristics. The projected consequences of climate change suggest an increase in heat-related mortality while it is unclear whether cold-related mortality will decrease. Moreover, dynamics such as demographic, epidemiological and socio-economic change or urbanization are likely to affect and modify heat mortality in the future. In the ongoing research project, I am working on projections of heat-excess mortality considering ageing, increase in socio-economic status and urbanization. Moreover, I have conducted an in-depth analysis of cold effects and the impact of precipitation. My findings demonstrate that cold effects occur on a very short-term time scale (contrary to findings from mid-latitude countries where cold effects occur on a mid-term scale). Moreover, analyses show that precipitation significantly mitigates heat effects during the summer and monsoon season. During the proposed 6-month extension of the research fellowship, I intent to project future cold-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Moreover, I anticipate to include the mitigating effect of precipitation into projections of heat-related mortality. The project aims at making a contribution to sophisticated and reliable projections of future temperature-related mortality. Such projections can provide health specialists and decision makers with a variety of future trends, contexts, risks and opportunities that can help in planning adaptation strategies.