Understanding spatial interactions and structural change in the dairy production chain with a dynamic regional Agent Based Model covering dairy farms and dairy processing

本研究项目要研究的两个中心假设是：(1)德国奶业部门的农场结构变化是农场和加工水平上的过程之间相互作用的结果；(2)基于主体的建模(ABM)的应用可以更好地理解这些过程，它允许明确地描述空间相互作用。其目的是通过空间上显式的ABM对不同地区进行模拟，以了解农场水平的结构变化和原料奶加工阶段之间的复杂动态相互作用，以及由此对土地利用、农业供应、经济和环境造成的后果。ABM将明确涵盖原料奶的农场和加工水平，这超出了当前的最先进水平。为了集成ABM中不同类型牧场的复杂动态数学规划模型的行为，将应用元建模方法。本项目和相关任务的具体目标如下：(1)开发一种方法以从复杂牧场模型中导出反映不同规划视野的适当的元模型，并将其应用于ABM中牧场代理人的参数化；(2)开发包括描述原料奶市场空间竞争的投资决策的奶牛场行为模型；(3)开发ABM中的其他关键模块，例如牧场退出，农地租赁或乳品加工能力调整模块，(4)将目标1-3的结果集成到一个动态的ABM中，以及(5)基于ABM的系统情景应用，提高理解不同的结构起始条件和不同的行为假设如何影响农场和加工水平的结构变化。鉴于农场和加工水平集成在一个ABM中，这为结构变化的决定因素和交互影响提供了独特的创新见解。奶制品部门非常适合这一分析，因为在生产和加工之间存在这种近乎完美的联系，因为只有很少的牛奶直接在农场一级销售。预期结果与奶牛场部门和奶制品生产链有关，因为奶制品生产是农业和食品业务的重要经济组成部分。德国乳制品公司的中长期国际竞争力取决于运作良好、成本效益高的投入来源。就农业部门而言，奶制品部门的区域结构变化对区域土地市场和景观具有重要的隐性影响。

The two central hypotheses to be investigated in this research project is that (1) farm structural change in the German dairy sector is the outcome of the interaction between processes at the farm and processing level and that (2) an improved understanding of these processes can be reached by the application of Agent Based Modelling (ABM), which allows to explicitly depict spatial interactions. The objective is to understand the complex dynamic interaction between structural change at farm level and raw milk processing stage, and the resulting consequences for land use, agricultural supply, the economy and the environment, by conducting simulations for different regions with a spatially explicit ABM. That ABM will explicitly cover the farm and processing level of raw milk, which goes beyond the current state-of-the-art. In order to integrate the behavior of a complex dynamic Mathematical Programming model for different types of farms in the ABM, a meta-modeling approach will be applied.The specific objectives of this project and the related tasks are the following: (1) to develop a methodology to derive appropriate meta-models, reflecting different planning horizons, from a complex farm model and apply it to the parameterization of farm agents in the ABM, (2) to develop a behavioral model for dairies including investment decisions that describes spatial competition in raw milk markets, (3) to develop other key modules in the ABM such as a farm exit, farmland rental or dairy processing capacity adjustment module, (4) to integrate the results from objectives 1 - 3 into a dynamic ABM and (5) to improve understanding, based on systematic scenario applications of the ABM, how different structural starting conditions and different behavioral assumption impact structural change at farm and processing level.Given the integration of the farm and processing level in one ABM, this offers unique and innovative insights into determinants and interaction effects of structural change. The dairy sector is well suited for this analysis as there is this nearly perfect linkage between production and processing as only very little milk is sold directly at farm level. The expected outcomes are of relevance for the dairy farm sector and the dairy production chain as dairy production is an economically important part of the agricultural and food business. The medium- to long-term international competitiveness of the German dairy companies depends on the functioning and cost-efficient input sourcing. For the farm sectors, the regional structural change in the dairy sector has important implicit repercussions for regional land markets and landscapes.