Groundwater salinisation following sea level rise as a societal challenge of climate adapta-tion - The case of North-Western Germany

地下水盐碱化是与海平面上升相关的主要问题之一，但这是一个社会和决策者长期关注的问题，因为这是一个进展相对缓慢的现象，其影响只会由于地下水流的缓慢性质而延迟很长时间。因此，这是一个可以归类为逐渐蔓延的灾难的问题，对更好地了解问题的各个方面以及制定社会对策构成挑战。必须了解地下水系统在气候变化后对海平面上升的脆弱性，并了解决定系统反应程度的主要因素，以便在沿海地区制定有效的管理和适应战略。该项目的目的是根据SPP海平面的预测，确定整个德国湾沿着含水层对北海海平面上升的反应。为此目的，将采用大规模区域数值变密度地下水流和输运模型。此外，将调查预测的地下水盐碱化的社会经济后果，以评估减排方案。一个特别的重点将是相关社会行为者的观念、知识和学习过程以及适应备选办法的成本。 拟议研究的目标与SPP的总体目标有关，即确定自然和社会沿海系统对未来海平面变化的反应，并评估在特定技术、经济、文化、社会和政治限制下适应海平面变化的战略。

Groundwater salinisation is one of the major problems associated with sea level rise, yet it is a prob-lem which has been overseen for a long time by society and decision makers, as it is a phenomenon that is progressing comparatively slow and its impacts only unfold with a strong delay due to the sluggish nature of sub-surface flow. Hence, it is a problem that may be classified as a creeping catastrophy posing challenges to a better understanding of the problem dimensions as well as for the development of societal responses. It is crucial to understand the vulnerability of groundwater systems to rising sea levels following climate change and to understand the primary factors that determine the magnitude of system response to develop effective management and adaptation strategies in coastal zones. The project will aim at identifying the response of the coastal aquifers along the entire German Bight to sea level rise in the North Sea based on predictions from the SPP SeaLevel. For this purpose, large scale regional numerical variable density groundwater flow and transport modelling will be applied. Moreover, socio-economic consequences of the predicted groundwater salinisation will be investigated in order to assess abatement options. A particular focus will lie on perceptions, knowledge and learning processes of relevant societal actors as well as costs of adaptation options. The objectives of the proposed research are related to the general objectives of the SPP to determine the natural and social coastal systems responses to future sea level change, and to assess strategies to adapt to sea level change under given technical, economic, cultural, social and political constraints.