Heat waves in Berlin, Germany -- Climate projections

该项目将调查城市气候、城市结构和全球气候变化之间动态相互作用的影响，重点关注德国柏林的热相关危害。特别是，我们将研究这些量的时空变异性。为了评估全球气候变化下热相关减灾行动的有效性，我们将特别讨论被动和主动建筑冷却与城市大气的相互作用以及城市植被的冷却潜力。柏林当前和预估的未来气候特征将来自全球和区域尺度的气候模拟组合（CMIP5， CORDEX）。将2001-2010年和2041-2050年的全球气候模式模拟进一步降尺度到城市尺度，以及过去和未来夏季的特征，以探讨潜在全球气候变化下城市对气候的影响变化。本文将应用COSMO-CLM区域气候模式及其城市参数化方法DCEP。将推导出热浪统计数据，并对集合和缩小尺度的气候数据进行比较。为了将cosmos - clm应用于这些目的，我们会加强DCEP，增加一个建筑能源模块（BEM），模拟室内空气温度、建筑能源消耗和人为热释放。此外，我们将考虑来自交通的空间和时间分解热量。DCEP-BEM模块将通过观测进行评估。再分析驱动的COSMO-CLM和DCEP-BEM 12年模拟将用于评估增强模式描述观测到的城市气候特征的能力。这是COSMO-CLM与DCEP-BEM在上述气候模拟中应用的先决条件。

This project will investigate the effects of the dynamic interaction between urban climate, urban structures and global climate change with focus on heat-related hazard in Berlin, Germany. In particular, we will study the spatial and temporal variability of these quantities. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of heat-related hazard reducing actions under global climate change, we will specifically address interactions of passive and active building cooling with the urban atmosphere as well as the cooling potential of urban vegetation.Characteristics of the current and projected future climate of Berlin will be derived from available climate simulation ensembles on the global and regional scales (CMIP5, CORDEX). Further downscaling of global climate model simulations to the urban scale will be conducted for the periods 2001-2010 and 2041-2050 as well as characteristic past and future summers, in order to investigate changes in the urban effects on climate under potential global climate change. Here we will apply the regional climate model COSMO-CLM and its urban parameterization DCEP. Heat wave statistics will be derived and compared for both the ensemble and the downscaled climate data.In order to apply COSMO-CLM for these purposes, we will enhance DCEP by adding a building energy module (BEM) for the simulation of indoor air temperatures, building energy consumption and anthropogenic heat release. Furthermore, we will consider spatially and temporally resolved heat from traffic. The DCEP-BEM module will be evaluated with observations. Reanalysis-driven twelve-year simulations with COSMO-CLM and DCEP-BEM will then be used to evaluate the ability of the enhanced models to describe observed urban climate characteristics. This is a prerequisite for applying COSMO-CLM with DCEP-BEM in the above mentioned climate simulations.