Impacts of tariffs of the US against China on the machinery exports of China and Japan to the US

本文分析了2002年第一季度至2021年第四季度中国和韩国对美国出口的十位数机械商品的面板数据，以确定一国经济变量对另一国出口数量和出口价格的影响。同时估计了每个国家的出口需求和供应。估计结果表明，中国变量对韩国出口的影响大于韩国变量对中国出口的影响。中国出口价格每下降1%，对韩国出口的需求就会下降0.380%。相比之下，当韩国出口价格下降1%时，对中国出口产品的需求下降0.185%。人民币每贬值1%，韩国出口价格就下降0.652%。韩元每贬值1%，中国出口价格就会下降0.824%。

I analyzed the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4 to determine the impacts of economic variables on one country on the export quantity and and the export price of the other country. The demand for and the supply of exports of each country were estimated simultaneously. The estimation results show that the impacts of Chinese variables on Korean exports are bigger than the impacts of Korean variables on Chinese exports. When the Chinese export price decreases by 1% the demand for Korean exports decreases by 0.380%. In contrast, when the Korean export price decreases by 1% the demand for Chinese exports decreases by 0.185%. When the Chinese renminbi depreciates by 1%, the Korean export price decreases by 0.652%. When the Korean won depreciates by 1%, the Chinese export prices decrease by 0.824%.