The Stability of Arctic Shelf Sea Dynamics and Freshwater Budget in the Light of Global Change.

这项提议的总的目的是使数学家和物理海洋学家聚集在一起，以加强海洋数值建模和海洋模型结果分析方面的知识交流。该提案是根据汉堡大学海洋学研究所（IfO-UH）和莫斯科数值数学研究所（IfNM-莫斯科）之间的双边合作项目提出的。计划合作的总主题是北极大陆架海动态的稳定性和全球变化背景下的淡水预算。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会最近的研究，全球变暖将严重影响北极环境，特别是欧亚北极大陆架海（巴伦支海、卡拉海、拉普捷夫海、东西伯利亚海和楚科奇海），其特点是大量河水径流和结冰。这两个过程构成了向北冰洋和北大西洋输出液态或固态（海冰）淡水的基础。可以预见，全球变暖引起的淡水供应的变化将不可避免地影响北冰洋的水文和全球热盐环流。IfO-UH的提案侧重于利用喀拉海现有和经过验证的冰-海耦合模型调查北极陆架海的淡水收支。在广阔的欧亚大陆架区域中，该陆架海是一个理想的和有代表性的研究区域，因为它提供了一个半封闭的模式域，它接收了北极总径流量的三分之一，是继拉普捷夫海之后的第二大冰输出区。该项目的主要科学目标是从海冰和液态淡水输出的角度量化喀拉海的淡水收支，并评估趋势和变化。具体目标是调查全球变暖方面的动态和淡水收支的稳定性，并评价区域范围内可能的趋势和环境后果。其结果将有助于正在进行的关于北方气候变化的讨论。计划中的德国-俄罗斯合作旨在交流和比较数值模型结果，应用和评估创新的数据分析方法，并探索模型得出的结果的局限性。该项目将特别汇集年轻科学家：来自每个研究所的博士生将进行交流，并在合作研究所工作有限的时间，以增加对不同新技术和方法的了解。

The general intention of this proposal is to bring together mathematicians and physical oceanographers in order to increase the exchange of knowledge for numerical ocean modeling and analysis of ocean model results. The proposal is based on previous DFG-projects on bi-lateral cooperation between the Institute for Oceanography, University Hamburg (IfO-UH) and the Institute for Numerical Mathematics (RAS) Moscow (IfNM-Moscow). The overall topic of the planned cooperation is the stability of Arctic Shelf Sea dynamics and freshwater budgets in the light of global change. According to recent IPCC studies, global warming will intensively affect the Arctic environment, in particular the Eurasian Arctic Shelf Seas (Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Sea), which are characterized by large river water runoff and ice formation. Both processes form the basis for the freshwater export in liquid or solid form (sea ice) to the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic. It can be expected that changes in the freshwater supply due to global warming will inevitably affect the Arctic Ocean s hydrography and the global thermo-haline circulation. The proposal of IfO-UH has its focus on the investigation of the freshwater budget of Arctic Shelf Seas, using an existing and validated coupled ice-ocean model of the Kara Sea. Among the vast Eurasian shelf areas, this shelf sea prooved to be an ideal and representative study area, because it provides a semi-enclosed model domain, it receives one third of the total Arctic runoff and it is the second largest ice export region following the Laptev Sea. Main scientific goal of the project is to quantify the freshwater budget of the Kara Sea in terms of sea ice and liquid freshwater export and to assess trends and variability. Specific goals are to investigate the stability of the dynamics and the freshwater budget with respect to global warming and to evaluate possible trends and environmental consequences on regional scales. The results shall contribute to ongoing discussions on climate change in the northern hemisphere. The planned German-Russian cooperation serves to exchange and compare numerical model results, to apply and evaluate innovative data analyzing methods and to explore the limits of model-derived findings. The project shall bring together in particular young scientists: PhD students from each institute will be exchanged and work for limited time at the partner institute in order to increase the knowledge on different new techniques and methods.