Urban climate change: scenarios of system events

拟议的研究项目旨在开发城市气候变化范围内系统事件的情景。这些场景提供了关于未来气候中的系统事件的有充分根据的、局部区分的和特别描述性的信息。这个概念是基于对相关天气事件的现实和连贯的评估，并考虑到具体的当地脆弱性。研究概念是在案例研究的基础上发展和评估的。分析了与城市人口热负荷密切相关的极端气温系统事件。在案例研究的框架内，将考虑巴伐利亚州中型城市奥格斯堡（人口：283544,2014年12月31日，Amt fattr Statistik und Stadtforschung, Stadt Augsburg 2015）。这个城市非常适合作为目标区域，因为它已经存在可用的城市气候数据库和它附近的位置。基于案例研究的结果，对系统事件场景的概念进行了综合评价。对其推广到其他气候引起的系统事件（如强降雨事件、干旱）和其他具有不同宏观和中尺度设置的城市的可能性进行了广泛的分析。

The proposed research project aims for the development of scenarios of system events in the scope of urban climate change. The scenarios provide well-grounded, locally differentiated and particularly descriptive information about system events in a future climate. The concept is based on a realistic and coherent assessment of relevent weather events and the consideration of the specific local vulnerability.The research concept is developed and evaluated on the basis of a case study. As system event air temperature extremes which are highly relevant for the thermal load of the urban population are analysed. In the framework of the case study the medium sized city of Augsburg, Bavaria (Pop: 283544, 31.12.2014, Amt für Statistik und Stadtforschung, Stadt Augsburg 2015) will be considered. This city is highly suited as target region because of the already existing available urban climatological data base and its nearby location.Based on the results of the case study a comprehensive evaluation of the concept of scenarios of system events is done. An extensive analysis with respect to the possibility of its generalization to other climatically induced system events (e.g. heavy rainfall events, drought) and other cities with differing makro- and mesoscale settings is performed.