The Reciprocal Relationship between Public Opinion and Social Policy

该项目调查民主社会中公众舆论和社会政策之间的相互关系。它提出了两个研究流，一个是宏观比较，旨在确定长期建立的民主福利国家的舆论和社会政策的普遍模式；另一个是深入调查德国，以确定更具体的意见-政策机制是循环运行、随着时间推移而分解，还是保持稳定在均衡状态。预计该项目至少会做出两项科学贡献：第一项是理论的进一步发展和测试。一些理论认为意见和政策之间的因果关系是不同的，而另一些理论则认为是互补的。关于时间的争论也不同，影响是静态的还是动态的，以及影响是否可以在不同的社会背景下推广。宏观比较经验分析将解决这些矛盾，特别是关于跨社会和跨时间的一组可概括的影响。在德国的案例研究中，可以使用更长的时间序列和更详细的观点和政策衡量标准来梳理出这些相互矛盾的理论。其次，与其他社会相比，德国调查公众舆论和社会政策之间相互反馈的研究较少。之前的大多数研究都是针对自由福利国家，如美国和英国，这些国家的政策制定者相对自主，这表明公众舆论的作用很突出。与此同时，德国的政策制定者受制于他们的政党，这可能会限制公众舆论的影响力。通过将经验结果与拟议的宏观比较流以及之前对自由国家意见、政策和制度的研究结果进行比较，可以了解到许多关于德国意见和政策联系的概括性。

The project investigates the reciprocal relationship between public opinion and social policy in democratic societies. It proposes two research streams, one macro-comparative looking to identify generalized patterns of public opinion and social policy across long-established democratic welfare states; and another investigating Germany in-depth to identify more specific opinion-policy mechanisms as operating in cycles, decomposing over time, or holding steady at equilibrium. At least two scientific contributions are expected from the project: The first is further development and testing of theory. Some theories argue for contrasting causal effects between opinion and policy, while others suggest complementarity. Arguments also vary regarding time, whether effects are static or dynamic, and if effects may be generalized across societal contexts. The macro-comparative empirical analyses will address these contradictions, in particular about a generalizable set of effects across societies and time. In the German case study these competing theories can be teased out using longer time-series and more detailed measurements of opinion and policy. Second, there are fewer studies investigating reciprocal feedback between public opinion and social policy in Germany than in other societies. Most previous research is on liberal welfare states such as the United States and Great Britain which have relatively autonomous policymakers, suggesting a prominent role of public opinion. Germany meanwhile has policymakers beholden to their political parties, potentially restricting the influence of public opinion. Much could be learned about the generalizability of German opinion and policy linkages by comparing empirical results with both the proposed macro-comparative stream, and those of previous research on opinion, policy and institutions in liberal states.