Mitigating Small Business Finance Risks

我使用计量经济学技术对信用担保计划进行了调查和建模，并计算了后新冠肺炎时代东南亚国家联盟(东盟)国家样本中每组银行在不同复苏阶段的最优信用担保比率。在研究中，首先考察了信用担保比率与不同变量之间的关系，并对日本、中国、东盟等几个亚洲国家的信用担保比率与相关变量的关系进行了研究。其次，构建了一个计量经济学模型来突出贷款违约率对宏观经济和银行层面冲动的反应；第三，我的研究提出了使中小企业复苏绿色和可持续的方法；第四，我评估了包括碳税、碳定价、绿色债券、绿色信贷担保、绿色信贷在内的各种绿色金融工具促进包括中小企业在内的所有部门绿色增长的有效性。我发现，绿色信贷担保计划是促进中小企业发展的适当工具，同时也激励它们走向绿色。此外，中小企业是重要的排放者；因此，如果不考虑中小企业，就不可能实现碳中和。除此之外，要有一个最佳的信贷保证计划，中小企业的担保费用需要根据它们的稳健程度而有所不同。此外，政府需要根据银行的稳健程度对其进行分类，稳健的银行将获得更高的担保比率。

I investigated and modeled the credit guarantee scheme using econometric techniques and calculated the optimal credit guarantee ratio for each group of banks in a sample of countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in different stages of recovery in post-COVID-19. In addition, I expanded my study by incorporating the carbon neutrality and green development goals and the necessity of green finance and investment to achieve the goals in Japan, China, ASEAN, and several other countries in Asia.In my studies, firstly, I examined the relationship between the credit guarantee ratio and different variables. Secondly, I developed an econometrics model to highlight the loan default ratio response to macroeconomic and bank-level impulses; thirdly, my studies proposed ways to make the recovery of SMEs, green and sustainable; fourthly, I evaluated the effectiveness of green finance instruments, including carbon taxation, carbon pricing, green bond, green credit guarantee, green credit to promote the green growth of all sectors including SMEs.I found that the green credit guarantee scheme is a proper instrument for facilitating the development of SMEs while incentivizing them to be green. Moreover, SMEs are significant emitters; hence carbon neutrality could not be achieved without considering the SMEs. In addition to that, to have an optimal credit guarantee scheme, the guarantee fee needs to vary for SMEs based on their soundness. Moreover, governments need to categorize banks based on their soundness, and sound banks receive a higher guarantee ratio.