Land to Sea: integrated modelling of consequences of terrestrial activities and climatechange for freshwater and coastal marine biodiversity and ecosystem services

要制定环境政策和管理来规范多种人类活动，就必须详细了解各种活动如何单独和共同影响生态系统及其提供的服务范围。在确定许多人为压力对生物多样性的影响、对生态系统的后果以及与各种服务的联系方面取得了进展。需要进一步的工作和整合，研究必须扩大到捕捉生物多样性多个层面的影响，并确定一个生态系统的变化如何影响其他生态系统。（B）在淡水和海洋生态系统中提供生态系统服务以及生物多样性和生态系统进程的基础共同设计一个机制，将框架应用于环境政策和实践。该项目汇集了来自爱尔兰、德国、瑞典、加拿大和美国的多学科小组。它将侧重于选定的人类对陆地系统的投入（营养物质、生物杀灭剂）对淡水和海洋系统的综合影响，以及未来气候引起的水文形态变化。实证研究将分析这些压力因素对生物多样性的多个层面以及对生态系统进程、服务和惠益的综合影响。研究结果将填补现有知识的空白，专家意见将对这些知识进行审查和补充，作为预测对水生生态系统和生态系统服务的影响的耦合模型（物理、生物和社会经济）框架的基础。该框架及其在政策和管理中的应用将通过四个案例研究领域进行开发和试验，这些领域具有不同的环境和社会背景，但具有强大的研究背景和对淡水和海洋生态系统的社会依赖性。在整个项目期间与利益攸关方接触将确保其产出的相关性和影响。

Environmental policy and management to regulate multiple human activities require detailed understanding of how activities act individually and in combination to affect ecosystems and the range of services they provide. Progress has been made in characterising effects of many anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity, consequences for ecosystems and links to services. Further work and integration is required and research must be extended to capture effects in multiple dimensions of biodiversity and determine how changes in one ecosystem affect others.Land2Sea aims to (a) develop an integrative framework of coupled models for predicting the immediate and long term consequences of land-use and climate change for the delivery of ecosystem services and the underlying biodiversity and ecosystem processes in freshwater and marine ecosystems and (b) co-design a mechanism for the application of the framework to environmental policy and practise.The project brings together a multidisciplinary team from Ireland, Germany, Sweden, Canada and the USA. It will focus on combined impacts on freshwater and marine systems of selected human inputs to terrestrial systems (nutrients, biocides) and future climate-induced changes to hydromorphology. Empirical research will characterise combined effects of these stressors on multiple dimensions of biodiversity and on ecosystem processes, services and benefits. Findings will fill gaps in existing knowledge, which will be reviewed and complemented by expert opinion as a basis for a framework of coupled models (physical, biological and socio-economic) to predict impacts on aquatic ecosystems and ecosystem services. The framework and its application to policy and management will be developed and trialed through four case study areas with differing environmental and societal contexts but with strong backgrounds of research and societal dependence on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Engagement with stakeholders throughout the project will ensure the relevance and impact of its outputs.