West Antarctic Last Interglacial ice sheet collapse (WANT-ice) - Dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Last Interglacial and its implications for future sea level changes.

格陵兰和南极冰盖的广泛融化导致最后一次间冰期(也称为海洋同位素阶段5e，约125.000年前)海平面上升了约6-9米(达顿等人，2015年)。值得注意的是，这次海平面上升是在与今天非常相似的气候制度下发生的。全球表面温度大约比前工业时代高0.5-1.5摄氏度，与今天几乎没有区别(Turney和Jones，2010；Hoffman等人，2017)。考虑到全世界人口稠密的沿海地区，未来几个世纪内海平面上升数米将导致大规模移民(Kopp等人，2017年)，对社会产生严重影响。尽管存在这种潜在危险，但仍不清楚在哪些气候阈值下会触发临界不稳定，从而导致南极部分冰盖，特别是脆弱的西南极海洋冰盖不可逆转地丧失。为了确定目前南极西部冰盖退缩的驱动力(Konrad等人，2018年)并预测其未来轨迹，有必要进行冰盖模型研究。在WANT-ICE项目的范围内，将通过三维大陆冰盖模型来研究南极冰盖在末次间冰期和未来的稳定性。为此，将模拟过去130.000年以及下个世纪及以后南极冰盖的消长。为了最大限度地减少基于模型的海平面预测的不确定性，应采用一种新的模型-数据相互比较方法，寻找与南极深冰核代理和当前南极冰盖内部地层学相匹配的模式配置。因此，受南极古气候冰芯档案和地层记录的制约，我们将能够第一次预测未来南极对海平面的贡献。

Widespread melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets led to a sea level rise of approximately 6-9 meter (Dutton et al., 2015) in the Last Interglacial (also known as Marine Isotope Stage 5e, ca. 125.000 years ago). It is noteworthy that this sea level rise occurred under a climate regime very similar to todays. Global surface temperatures were approximately 0.5-1.5C warmer than in pre-industrial times and almost indistinguishable from today (Turney and Jones, 2010; Hoffman et al., 2017). Considering the densely populated coastal regions worldwide, a multi-meter sea level rise within the next centuries would result in mass migration (Kopp et al., 2017) with severe effects on society. Despite this potential hazard, it is still unclear upon which climate-threshold critical instabilities will be triggered which lead to the irreversible loss of parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheets, in particular the vulnerable marine West Antarctic Ice Sheet.To identify the driving forces behind the current retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Konrad et al., 2018) and project its future trajectory, ice sheet modelling studies are necessary. In the scope of project WANT-ice, the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial and into the future shall be investigated by means of 3D continental ice sheet modelling. For this purpose, the growth and retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be simulated for the last 130.000 years as well as for the next century and beyond. To minimise uncertainties of model-based sea level projections, a novel model-data intercomparison approach shall be employed, seeking outmodel configurations which match Antarctic deep ice core proxies and the current Antarctic ice sheet’s internal stratigraphy. Thus, we will be able to produce the first projection of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level constrained by the Antarctic paleo-climate ice core archive and stratigraphic record.