Impact of climate on grain legume yield stability

农业系统的复原力是适应气候变化的关键。作为衡量耕作制度复原力的一个尺度，产量的时间稳定性面临着气候变异性增加和极端天气事件发生率增加的问题。产量稳定性对欧洲种植的豆类作物特别重要，因为豆类作物生产高质量蛋白质和一系列生态系统服务。豆类作物的产量往往比其他作物更易变，有初步迹象表明产量稳定性下降。没有足够的证据表明不同环境中不同豆类作物品种的产量稳定性与气候变率和极端天气事件的变化之间的关系。这种分析和对所涉过程的基本理解是必要的，以便为农学和植物育种工作提供信息，使谷物豆类种植系统适应气候变化。“气候对谷物豆类产量稳定性的影响”项目将在欧洲各地的六个长期试验中，使用新的统计方法和模拟建模相结合的方法，量化豌豆、蚕豆和大豆产量稳定性的时间变化和气候对产量稳定性的影响。总的研究问题是：（i）在过去60年里，豆类产量稳定性是否下降？(ii)气候变化与产量稳定性之间是否存在关系？(iii)特定作物生长阶段的天气事件对产量稳定性的影响是否大于年度趋势？以及（iv）统计方法和模拟模型的结合是否比单一方法更有助于更好地解释产量稳定性的影响因素？这些问题导致了以下目标，即（i）在整个欧洲不同生物物理条件下量化LTE中的气候变率与谷物豆类产量稳定性之间的关系，（ii）量化平均年降水量和温度对产量稳定性的影响，（iii）量化开花和荚果充实期间的平均降水量和温度对产量稳定性的影响，以及（iv）使用统计方法和模拟模型相结合来量化开花和结荚期间干旱和热胁迫对产量稳定性的影响。来自欧洲六个LTE的作物产量、物候和天气数据将为采用规模调整的产量稳定性指标、混合线性模型和基于过程的模拟模型进行新的统计分析提供基础。这些方法的结合使得能够检测过去几十年产量稳定性变化的一般趋势以及气候变异性与产量稳定性之间的关系，这使我们对产量稳定性的科学知识超越了最先进的水平。

The resilience of agricultural systems is key in adapting to climate change. Temporal yield stability, as a measure for the resilience of cropping systems, is confronted by the increased climate variability and increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Yield stability is particularly relevant in Europe-grown grain legumes which produce high quality protein and a range of ecosystem services. Grain legume yields tend to be more variable than other crops and there are first indications of a decrease in yield stability. There is insufficient evidence on the relationship between yield stability of different grain legume species in different environments and changes in climate variability and extreme weather events. Such analyses and a fundamental understanding of the processes involved are needed to inform agronomy and plant breeding efforts to adapt grain legume cropping systems to climate change. The project “Impact of climate on grain legume yield stability” will quantify changes in temporal yield stability and the influence of climate on yield stability for pea, faba bean and soybean in six long-term experiments (LTE) across Europe using a combination of novel statistical methods and simulation modelling. The overall research questions are: (i) did grain legume yield stability decrease during the last 60 years?, (ii) is there a relationship between changes in climate variability and yield stability?, (iii) are weather events during specific crop growth phases affecting yield stability more than annual trends?, and (iv) does the combination of statistical methods and simulation models help to better explain the factors contributing to yield stability than a single method? These questions lead to the following objectives, i.e. (i) to quantify the relationship between climate variability and yield stability for grain legumes in LTE under different bio-physical conditions across Europe, (ii) to quantify the effect of mean annual precipitation and temperature on yield stability, (iii) to quantify the effect of mean precipitation and temperature during flowering and pod filling on yield stability, and (iv) to quantify the effect of drought and heat-stress during flowering and pod filling on yield stability using a combination of statistical methods and simulation modelling. Data on crop yields, phenology and weather from the six LTE across Europe will provide the basis to apply novel statistical analyses using a scale-adjusted yield stability indicator, mixed linear models and process-based simulation models. The combination of these methods enables detecting general trends in yield stability changes over the last decades and relationships between climate variability and yield stability that bring our scientific knowledge on yield stability beyond the state of the art.