Modeling species richness and biogeographic patterns of Atlantic larger benthic foraminifera and a global perspective in terms of climate change

物种分布模型(SDM)将物种的实际发生记录与当地环境数据联系起来，从而可以预测潜在的空间和时间分布范围。它已成为保护管理的有效工具，并有助于估计生物多样性的实际状况和未来损失。对于在全球范围内受到气候变化、污染和直接破坏威胁的珊瑚礁来说，这一点尤为重要。天气预报预测，在不久的将来，栖息地的大规模丧失和珊瑚礁区域的赤道撤退。海洋变暖将进一步导致生物多样性格局的改变，物种入侵高纬度，物种生态灭绝，特别是在低纬度地区。大西洋的珊瑚礁是最濒危的珊瑚礁之一，许多地方的硬珊瑚覆盖率正在大规模和持续下降。大型底栖有孔虫(LBF)是一种多产的海洋钙化物，与生物礁的形成和稳定有关。它们也是海洋生物多样性的完美替代生物，因为它们的模式与其他热带海洋类群的模式密切相关。这个项目的主要目标是详细分析通过SDM创建的现代LBF的物种丰富度格局，(1)展示当代格局并确定大西洋LBF多样性的中心，(2)提供2040-2050年和2090-2100年期间气候变化LBF丰富度格局的全球视角。这包括编制高分辨率生物地理地图和描绘纬度多样性梯度。申请的项目将提供对大西洋领域的主要综合分析，从而完成LBF生物地理模式的图景。这将进一步有助于将大西洋海洋生物多样性的中心本地化。进一步拟订未来全球设想的目的是记录和量化气候变化对海洋生物多样性模式的影响。这将允许与其他热带海洋分类群(例如珊瑚)的预测模式进行比较，此外，还可能有助于完善大西洋珊瑚礁和世界范围内高度优先养护区域的划定。

Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) links actual species occurrence records to local environmental data and thereby allows to predict potential distribution ranges in space and time. It has become an effective tool for conservation management and helps to estimate the actual status and future loss in biodiversity. This is of particular importance for coral reefs that are globally threatened by climate change, pollution, and direct damage. Forecasts are predicting large-scale habitat loss and an equatorial retraction of reef area in the near future. Ocean warming will further lead to changes in biodiversity patterns, invasions of species into higher latitudes and ecological extinction of species especially in lower latitudes. Coral reefs in the Atlantic Ocean are among the most endangered and are exhibiting massive and ongoing hard coral cover decline in many places. Symbiont-bearing Larger Benthic Foraminifera (LBF) are prolific marine calcifiers and are involved in reef-building and stability. They are also perfect proxy organisms for marine biodiversity as their patterns strongly correlate with those of other tropical marine taxa. Analyses on the biogeography of Atlantic LBF have so far been only performed on generic level and selected species.The primary goal of this project is a detailed analysis of species richness patterns of modern LBF created through SDM (1) to display the contemporary patterns and identify the center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic realm, and (2) to provide a global perspective of LBF richness patterns in terms of climate change for the time periods 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. This includes a compilation of high-resolution biogeographic maps and the depiction of latitudinal diversity gradients.The applied-for project will provide a premier comprehensive analysis of the Atlantic realm and thereby complete the picture of LBF biogeographic patterns. It will further help to localize the center of marine biodiversity in the Atlantic Ocean. The additional elaboration of future global scenarios aims to document and quantify the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity patterns. This will allow comparison to predicted patterns of other tropical marine taxa (e. g. corals) and, moreover, may help to refine the delineation of high-priority areas for conservation in Atlantic reefs and worldwide.