Changing labor markets in unequal societies: Challenges from heterogeneity in labor market risk

劳动力市场不断变化。德国的哈茨改革、所有工业化国家的数字化和自动化带来的技术变革，以及来自中国等人日益激烈的全球竞争，这些都引发了人们的担忧，即劳动力市场的变化甚至已经加速，以至于当今的劳动力面临着更高的劳动力市场风险、更少的工作保障和高度的不平等。失业带来的劳动力市场风险更高，终身工作消失带来的工作保障更低，但技术变革和全球化带来的机会对所有工人来说可能并不相同，不同的劳动力可能会有很大不同。可以想象，快节奏的劳动力市场变化甚至放大了现有的差异，并加剧了人们对劳动力市场风险增加和不平等加剧的担忧。但劳动力市场风险的差异有多大？这些差异如何影响家庭的消费和财务决策？它们对住房所有权等关键财务决策有何影响？政府是否应该重新设计社会保障制度，如失业或养老保险制度，以考虑劳动力市场风险的异质性？经济研究仍然缺乏对这些关键问题的答案。拟议的研究项目旨在填补这一空白。它建立在理论和实证经济研究最新进展的基础上，并依靠来自不同来源的高质量微观数据来提供答案。在从宏观经济的角度来看，工作计划涉及从应用微观经济学到公共财政和经济理论的不同领域。该项目实证部分的目标是使用德国社会保障数据为劳动力市场风险的异质性提供新的证据，并记录关于家庭劳动力市场经验和财务状况之间关系的事实。理论部分的目标是开发一个模型框架，将劳动力市场风险的异质性纳入金融决策模型。该模型将以劳动力市场决策、收益动态和财务决策的互动为特征，此外，收益动态将适应宏观经济环境的变化，无论是劳动力市场改革还是技术变革。我还计划通过纳入代表房地产市场独特性质的额外投资组合选择决定，进一步完善财务决策。如果研究项目将取得成功，那么将这些新开发的模型与经验证据相结合，将使我能够解决有关不平等社会中不断变化的劳动力市场的紧迫问题。该研究项目能够给出的答案将对解决重要的宏观经济和公共政策问题至关重要。

Labor markets undergo constant change. Drastic policy reforms like the Hartz reforms in Germany, technological change from digitalization and automation in all industrialized countries, and rising global competition from China and others have raised concerns that changes in labor markets have even accelerated so that today’s workforce faces higher labor market risks, less job security, and high levels of inequality. Higher labor market risks from unemployment and lower job security from the disappearance of life-time jobs but also opportunities that arise from technological change and globalization are likely not the same for all workers and might differ substantially across the workforce. It is conceivable that fast-paced labor market change even amplified the existing differences and reinforced concerns of increased labor market risks and rising inequality. But how large are differences in labor market risks? How do these differences shape consumption and financial decision-making of households? How do they affect key financial decisions like homeownership? Should governments redesign social security systems like the unemployment or old-age pension system to take heterogeneity in labor market risk into account? Economic research still lacks answers to such pivotal questions. The proposed research project aims at filling this void. It builds on recent advances in theoretical and empirical economic research and relies on high-quality microdata from different sources in providing answers. While taking a macroeconomic viewpoint, the work program reaches out into different fields from applied microeconomics to public finance, and economic theory.The goal of the empirical part of the project is to provide new evidence on heterogeneity in labor market risk using German social security data and to document facts on the relationship between households’ labor market experience and their financial situation. The goal for the theoretical part is to develop a model framework that incorporates heterogeneity in labor market risk into a model of financial decision making. The model is going to feature interacting labor market decisions, earnings dynamics, and financial decision making, and furthermore, earnings dynamics that adapt to changes in the macroeconomic environment be it from labor market reforms or technological change. I also plan to further refine financial decision making by incorporating an additional portfolio choice decision that represents the distinctive properties of the housing market. If the research program will be successful, then using these newly developed models in combination with the empirical evidence will enable me to address pressing questions regarding changing labor markets in unequal societies. The answers the research program can give will be paramount to address important macroeconomic and public policy questions.