ThinkALPS - Thermokinematic models including Uncertainty of Geometry in the Alps

热运动模型是理解俯冲极性反转对阿尔卑斯山脉演化影响的关键，因为它们对挖掘的空间分布和时间提供了约束。然而，最先进的模型无法解释深度结构的不确定性，这使得无法确定探测到的挖掘信号背后的驱动力。在这个项目中，我们将构建例程，允许在热力学模型中考虑完全几何不确定性。我们将首先把这些例程应用到阿尔卑斯山脉的北部前陆褶皱冲断带，亚高山Molasse。该地区连接阿尔卑斯山脉及其前陆，造山带前缘的进退与造山作用直接相关，特别适合研究大规模造山带动力学；虽然板块的持续收敛将导致前陆沉积物逐渐并入造山带，但构造制度的变化将直接体现在构造活动序列和亚高山Molasse的几何形状上。同时，亚高山莫拉斯由前陆盆地沉积物组成，直接记录了腹地历史。我们的热动力学模型将显示，当考虑到深度几何的不确定性时，热年表信号是多么独特。在最后一步，我们将在造山带尺度上应用我们的常规方法，在已经推测存在俯冲极性反转的地区。我们将测试标准的热动力学模型是否确实能够区分挖掘信号背后的不同驱动因素。我们将确定需要精确和准确模型数据的关键区域，并将研究这些区域，以提供定量估计与东阿尔卑斯山板动力学印记挖掘估计相关的深层过程。

Thermokinematic models are key for understanding the influence of subduction polarity reversal on the evolution of the Alps, as they provide constraints on the spatial distribution and timing of exhumation. However, state-of-the-art models cannot account for uncertainty of structures at depth, which makes it impossible to determine the driving force behind detected exhumation signals. In this project, we will build routines that allow for accounting for full geometric uncertainty in thermokinematic models. We will first apply these routines to the northern foreland fold-thrust-belt of the Alps, the Subalpine Molasse. This area is particularly suited to resolve large-scale dynamics of the orogen, as it links the Alps with its foreland, and prograding or backstepping of the orogenic front is directly linked to orogenic processes; while continuous plate convergence will result in progressive incorporation of foreland sediments in the orogenic wedge, changes in the tectonic regime would be directly witnessed in the sequence of tectonic activity as well as the geometry of the Subalpine Molasse. At the same time, the Subalpine Molasse consists of foreland basin sediments, which directly record the hinterland history. Our thermokinematic models will show how unique thermochronological signals can be when the uncertainty of geometry at depth is taken into account.In a final step, we will apply our routines at the orogen scale, in the region where a subduction polarity reversal has been conjectured. We will test whether standard thermokinematic models are indeed able to distinguish between different drivers behind exhumation signals. We will identify key regions where data for precise and accurate models are required, and will study these to provide a quantitative estimate how much deep seated processes related to slab dynamics imprint exhumation estimates in the Eastern Alps.